Coffee has survived disease, economic crises and changing consumer habits. Today, however, it faces a challenge that is harder to predict or control: climate change.

Across coffee-producing regions, rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, longer droughts and extreme weather are altering conditions that farmers have relied on for generations. For an industry supporting millions of farming families, the question is no longer whether climate change will affect coffee. It already is. The bigger question is whether coffee can adapt quickly enough.

Arabica coffee is particularly vulnerable. Its quality depends heavily on altitude, temperature, rainfall and relatively stable growing conditions. Changes in these factors can affect flowering, cherry development and yields, ultimately influencing what we taste in the cup. As temperatures rise, some traditional Arabica-growing regions may become less suitable for cultivation.

Climate change also creates indirect threats. Warmer conditions can allow pests and diseases to spread into areas where they were previously less common. Coffee Leaf Rust has demonstrated how disease can disrupt production across entire regions, while the Coffee Berry Borer can become more difficult to manage as favorable conditions allow it to survive at higher elevations.

One of the most important areas of research is genetics. Scientists and plant breeders are studying coffee varieties for characteristics that could help farms withstand higher temperatures, drought and disease. The challenge is developing resilient varieties while preserving the quality and flavor characteristics consumers expect. A variety may survive difficult climatic conditions, but if its cup profile is undesirable, farmers may struggle to command premium prices. The future of coffee breeding therefore depends on balancing resilience, productivity and quality.

Genetics, however, is only part of the solution. Healthy soil is increasingly recognized as an important defense against climate instability. Soil rich in organic matter can retain more moisture during dry periods and support healthier root systems. Composting, mulching, cover crops and regenerative practices can help farms become more resilient while improving long-term soil fertility.

Shade trees provide another natural form of protection. Well-managed shade can reduce temperatures around coffee plants, limit water evaporation, protect the soil and create more stable microclimates. Diversified farms can also support biodiversity and healthier ecosystems. Some of the most effective climate solutions may therefore come from making coffee farms more balanced rather than more intensive.

Technology is adding another layer of protection. Satellite imagery, weather forecasting, soil sensors, remote monitoring and artificial intelligence are giving producers increasingly useful information. Farmers can monitor soil moisture, anticipate extreme weather, identify crop stress and make better decisions about irrigation, fertilization and farm management.

For the Gulf coffee market, these developments matter more than they may initially appear. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and neighboring markets have experienced strong growth in specialty coffee, roasting, importing and café culture. Much of the coffee consumed across the region depends on producing countries thousands of kilometers away. Climate disruption in Ethiopia, Brazil, Colombia, Uganda and other major origins can therefore eventually reach Gulf markets through changing availability, higher costs, greater price volatility or differences in quality.

Saudi Arabia adds another dimension because coffee is not only imported and consumed but also grown domestically. Coffee-producing areas in the Kingdom already operate in challenging environments where water management, heat resilience, soil health and efficient agricultural practices are critical. Advances in drought-resistant varieties, precision irrigation and climate-smart agriculture could therefore have relevance not only for international suppliers but also for the future development of Saudi coffee production.

Yet perhaps the biggest challenge is not developing solutions but making them accessible. Much of the world’s coffee is produced by smallholder farmers with limited financial resources. Replanting with new varieties can require years before trees generate meaningful income, while irrigation systems, technology and improved agricultural practices require investment.

Responsibility must therefore extend across the coffee value chain. Research institutions, governments, exporters, traders, roasters and coffee companies all have a role to play. For Gulf businesses, this creates an opportunity to think beyond purchasing coffee and toward building stronger, long-term relationships with producing countries. Supporting farmer development, climate adaptation, research and more resilient supply chains can ultimately protect both producers and buyers.

Coffee can survive climate change. But its future will depend on how quickly the entire value chain, from farms at origin to rapidly growing coffee markets in the Gulf, is prepared to adapt with it.

• Almohanad Almarwai is an entrepreneur, business consultant, and co-founder and CEO of Pure Coffee Group.