These first steps toward a settlement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir make for anxious times. So ingrained are the rival positions, so enduring the physical separation of the two parts of this beautiful country, that it is still hard to believe that any good will come from the start of this latest, but by far most promising, settlement initiative. This is a conflict in which both sides have been conditioned by years of rivalry always to think the worst of each other. The prospect of misunderstandings presents itself at every turn. It will be extremely hard for any of the parties to this slow and complex dance of peace to lay aside their automatic suspicion of whatever is proposed by the other side.
We have seen an excellent example of this in the unofficial mutterings from Islamabad about the face-to-face meeting between Indian Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee and the leader of one of the moderate Kashmiri separatist groups, Mirwaiz Omar Farooq. Some in Pakistan have reacted immediately by wondering if the Indians are trying to cut Pakistan out of the negotiations, reaching an independent settlement with Kashmiri moderates. This would leave Islamabad isolated, along with the diehard separatists who continue to launch operations into Indian-controlled Kashmir from Pakistani territory. To suspect the Indians is understandable, though hopefully completely wrong. It is also, ironically, probably a good thing, because those people in Islamabad who have reacted so dubiously to this early Indian move along the path of settlement should now understand that they have their exact counterparts in New Delhi who will be just as suspicious of the genuine nature of any future Pakistani initiative.
Nevertheless, what makes the rapprochement between Islamabad and New Delhi so promising is that there are no conditions, except the undertaking to learn the fundamental fears of either side. That is what the Indian premier and the Kashmiri separatists were doing last week.
There will be those who believe that a real settlement will be impossible without expert outside mediation, such as that which the Norwegians brought to the conflict in Sri Lanka. It is important to realize that this may yet be a possibility, if all parties recognize that they need a third party to take the initiative further.
Diplomats believe that India needs a settlement so that it can concentrate on its emerging role as a regional economic superpower. It would, however, prefer to manage the task itself because outside intervention would undermine its international credentials. But the realpolitik should not concern Pakistan. If these two powerful neighbors can learn at last to trust one another, the problem of Jammu and Kashmir will have gone a long way toward being solved.
