WASHINGTON, 2 February 2004 — Two weeks ago I chose Howard Dean to be the Democratic — idol based in part on the fact that I thought he could build a new movement and bring new voters into the party — two things critical to beating President Bush.

So I was sort of right. He did expand the electorate - there have been increased turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire —but most of the new voters are supporting John Kerry, not Howard Dean.

I made another, less obvious error, however, one also shared by many other Democrats. The old joke about Democrats is that, when they are asked to form a firing squad, they line up in a circle. Hence conventional wisdom, repeated by the party chairman and by others, including me, is that the party should get the race for the nomination over quickly in order to heal the wounds and focus on Bush. But I now wonder if that isn’t as wrongheaded as the belief that Dean would prosper from having expanded the electorate.

A funny thing happened last week. While the Democrats were duking it out in New Hampshire, President Bush took some hits. In a Newsweek poll taken last Thursday and Friday, voters across the country gave John Kerry a small lead over Bush — the first time a Democrat had overtaken Bush in that poll. Of course, this will change many times, but in that same poll more people said they were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the United States than were satisfied — a key measure of how well the president is doing. Moreover, only 44 percent said they wanted to see Bush have a second term.

What happened? Last week, Democrats couldn’t help but get heard. In the midst of all the nonsense - a candidate who screamed, a political wife who didn’t wear lipstick - the basic critique of Bush (not very different from Democrat to Democrat) got out. Not even the State of the Union address could drown them out. So even though I spent the last six months throwing candidates off this stage, I will now take the old-fashioned ‘’lady’s prerogative” to change my mind and say: Don’t Go! Stay in! Only a rip-roaring (but civil) race will allow Democrats to make the case against Bush.

Hence a short list of dos and don’ts to help all the candidates do their best.

• John Kerry: Do stay cool. Bring on those Vietnam pictures and those wonderful buddies from Vietnam, of whom you said the other night, ‘’We’re a little older and a little grayer but we still know how to fight for our country.” And keep doing macho things like piloting your own helicopter and playing ice hockey. Don’t talk policy. You still sound like a senator.

• Howard Dean: Do talk policy. You are still the only one in the race who understands that to answer a question well you don’t start with your 13-point plan. Don’t try to be cool.

• John Edwards: Do keep up the cogent message about two Americas. Everyone is copying it, the sincerest form of flattery. Don’t try to get negative on the sly; it will come back to haunt you.

• Wesley Clark: Do remind people you were a general. America needs to know that there are Democrats in the military.

• Joe Lieberman: Do stay in this race. America needs to know that there are Democrats who believe in God.

And, finally, Dennis Kucinich. Back when I believed in throwing people off the stage you were one of the first to go. I’m sorry. I’ve changed my mind. The party needs you more than ever. Do challenge every other candidate to bring the troops home and to turn every doctor and nurse in America into a federal bureaucrat. A decade ago, Democrats had a message problem. The voters knew what they stood for and they didn’t like it. Bill Clinton changed much of that by bringing the party into the mainstream. But in the meantime Democrats developed another problem. I call it ‘’the tree falling in the forest problem” - they can’t get heard. They don’t have the White House, they don’t have Congress, they don’t have a television network, they don’t have a top-rated national radio talk-show host, and all their think tanks combined barely equal the annual budget of one of the big conservative think tanks.

If Democrats had a nominee tonight, the Republican bombardment would begin tomorrow and they would be helpless against it. If the Democrats can spend at least one, maybe two, more months in a civilized fight among themselves, they might be able to land some blows on the guy in the White House along the way.