WASHINGTON, 5 February 2004 — Sen. John F. Kerry excelled as a scrappy underdog in Iowa and tough-talking combat veteran since then. Now comes the hard part, Democratic officials say: Closing the deal on a front-running campaign for his party’s presidential nomination while avoiding the errors of his past.
Coming off last night’s victories, Kerry is planning on presenting himself in the day’s ahead as the undisputed leader, according to his advisers, fighting it out in every state instead of cherry-picking like his rivals. Some advisers envision a quick-kill strategy with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean going down in Wisconsin on Feb. 17 and Sen. John Edwards, the Democratic candidate they fear most, dropping out soon after.
The macho image of Kerry as a combat hero willing to stand up to President Bush will continue to dominate ads and speeches, though advisers anticipate the election to turn on domestic concerns such as jobs and health care. Democrats and even some Republicans said Kerry has shown he’s capable of neutralizing the GOP’s historical edge on national defense and focusing the fight on the economy, health insurance and a people-versus-the powerful message that Al Gore ran and lost on in 2000.
Kerry will try to rally the party by ringing up endorsements and reaching out to skeptical Democrats, including Dean supporters. His campaign is also looking to capitalize financially, starting with two fundraisers on Thursday in New York City. Still, Kerry isn’t in the clear yet and some Democrats still worry he could re-emerge as his own worst enemy.
As the front-runner last year — before the Dean boom — Kerry stumbled badly enough to give party donors pause and prompt some Democratic insiders to essentially write off his candidacy. The knock on Kerry back then was he failed to connect with voters and often muddled his campaign message with long-winded and sometimes confusing explanations of his position on the Iraq war and other issues. And he presided uncertainly over a faction-ridden campaign. Several Democrats close to Kerry said their one of their chief concerns remains his tendency to reinforce through his words and appearance unflattering stereotypes of liberalism, elitism and detachment, though all of them pointed to steady improvement in recent months.
“The old John Kerry can not return to the scene,’’ said Donna Brazile, Gore’s campaign manager in 2000.
“There’s no possibility’’ of that happening, Kerry told reporters as his charter plane flew into Spokane Tuesday. “This is a great team we have and they’re on the front burner; they’re in high cylinder, high gear and we’re going to stay in high gear. As far as I’m concerned it’s full speed ahead and we’re not playing cautious here.’’
Doug Hattaway, a Boston-based consultant who is neutral in the primary contest, said Kerry’s stumbles through the fall reminded him of the staff turmoil and spotty performance of Al Gore and his team in 2000. But this time, argued Hattaway, it appears Kerry has “internalized those lessons’’ and put in place a highly-disciplined team led by Mary Beth Cahill and former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen to clean up the campaign. Gore allowed the problems to persist and eventually consume and in some ways define his campaign, Democrats say.
After changing his campaign style, often appearing looser and less scripted at events, Kerry has been riding a wave of positive views about his electability to the top of national polls. He also benefited greatly from the decision of every rival except Dean to run an upbeat, often attack-free, campaign, party strategists said. This allowed Kerry to run a markedly positive and Bush-focused campaign over the past few weeks.
In some respects, clearing the Democratic field — a top priority for the campaign — may help Kerry keep a sharper focus. Throughout the nominating season, Kerry has seemed most at ease pouncing on Bush. “It’s very important time to build up a reserve of (positive images), something Americans can hold onto before the Republicans come in and throw mud at our guy,’’ said Bruce Reed, president of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. But Kerry’s advisers anticipate the fight possibly stretching into early March if Dean does well in Wisconsin and Edwards in Tennessee and Virginia.
Kerry wants to run a positive campaign with a heavy focus on his ability to neutralize or beat Bush on foreign policy. But he will also spend the next weeks — and the remainder of the year if he wins the nomination — beating back charges he’s too liberal, too much like Gore in pedigree and decision-making and too supportive of raising taxes and cutting defense, according to strategists devising attacks for his Democratic rivals and the White House.
Kerry on Tuesday worked to fend off the latest and most consistent attack of recent days: That he received more money from lobbyists than any other senator over the past 15 years. Mimicking figures circulated by the Kerry campaign, several campaign finance reform advocates lauded Kerry for refusing to take political action committee money. The Bush campaign will throw two major themes at him in coming weeks: Taxes and national security, according to Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie. Some also fear Kerry’s ability to take highlight the one-year gap in President Bush’s Texas Air National Guard service during the height of the Vietnam War, which Kerry has not ruled out making an issue if he wins the nomination. “I am convinced Republicans are scared of my campaign,’’ Kerry said late Monday night. Kerry’s new sense of confidence is shared by his campaign. His aides are already kicking around plans to make a general election splash during the yawning gap between now and the party’s July convention.
