DAVAO, Philippines, 13 February 2004 — Old enemies from the Philippine military and the largest Muslim rebel group were all smiles as they agreed on steps to shore up the policing of a fragile truce on the southern island of Mindanao.
Achieving a permanent peace after three decades of violence will require much more.
Negotiators due to meet in Malaysia for exploratory talks on Monday and Tuesday must overcome deep distrust over the rebels’ main demand — a separate Islamic state in the south of the mostly Catholic country.
That will be extremely difficult, analysts say, especially with general elections looming in May.
For the moment, easing tension between government forces and 12,000 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) guerrillas is the best to be hoped for.
“They want respite from this,” Lt. Gen. Rodolfo Garcia told Reuters, referring to the rebels’ and their war, after attending the amicable meeting last weekend of a cease-fire committee with MILF officials in Davao.
“They want to raise children and be with their families.”
Beyond US concerns about the MILF’s suspected links to international Islamic militant groups, efforts for peace are complicated by a perceived split in the group between relatively moderate nationalists and Middle East-influenced radicals.
Some political analysts see little reason for hope.
“To be honest, I sometimes wonder what they have to talk about,” said the Southeast Asia security expert Zachary Abuza, from Simmons College in Boston.
“I think certainly the MILF expects that war will break out at some point and they’re holding tight.”
Abuza said MILF officials had “very low expectations” of a peace settlement, pointing to the government’s failure to implement several aspects of last year’s cease-fire accord.
The truce in July came five months after 5,000 soldiers, backed by helicopter gunships, captured a main MILF base at Buliok in central Mindanao, shattering a previous cease-fire.
After Buliok fell, two bombs ripped through the island’s largest city of Davao, killing about 40 people and fueling suspicion the MILF was willing to fall back on terror tactics.
The MILF denies government accusations it planted the bombs, just as it denies it has links with the regional militant group Jemaah Islamiah or Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network.
It is demanding that government forces withdraw from Buliok, among other conditions for a return to formal peace talks.
Despite decades of distrust, some think the time is ripe for progress.
Although there have been some flare-ups — the latest last weekend when five rebels were killed in a clash with troops — the cease-fire has been judged a success.
Life in areas that were battlegrounds has regained a semblance of normality, albeit as poverty-stricken as ever.
If next week’s talks in Kuala Lumpur go well, a team of Malaysian observers will arrive in Mindanao within weeks to take up the role of neutral referee that is seen as vital to preventing minor cease-fire violations from escalating.
An official with a Western aid agency who has contacts in the MILF said the Malaysia-brokered talks could succeed in moving the conflict into the political arena from the military one.
“I’m confident there will be an agreement on keeping the cease-fire or creating the conditions that keep the cease-fire,” the official said.
“The leadership is ageing and would like to see some closure,” he said of the rebel commanders.
The MILF’s long-time chairman, Muslim cleric Hashim Salamat, died of a heart attack last year. His successor Al Haj Murad is seen as more moderate, raising speculation about a rift with more radical Islamists.
Talks with the government will eventually have to address the central issue of independence.
MILF commanders say they will accept nothing less than an East Timor-style referendum to let Mindanao’s five million Muslims decide their future. The Philippines’ 82 million people are predominantly Roman Catholic and the government rules out any solution that would threaten sovereignty.
“You can never expect the Moro people to end our legitimate struggle,” Benjie Midtimbang, a former MILF head of military training, told Reuters.
He said the military was always ready to start trouble and may only be holding back now to avoid creating more instability in an election year.
One hope is that the US offer of $30 million in development aid to MILF areas after a peace settlement is signed will help concentrate minds on a compromise, perhaps a form of federalism.
Abuza said the MILF goal of independence could not be bought off but the rebels probably were keen to keep Washington involved to put pressure on Manila to make concessions.
“They see JI (Jemaah Islamiah) as a very important card to be played at the negotiating table,” Abuza said, referring to the suspected use of MILF camps for training by the regional militants. “They know that’s why the Americans are involved.”
