NEW DELHI, 28 April 2004 — The ruling coalition led by the BJP yesterday brushed aside exit polls showing the opposition fast catching up in an election race, saying it would make strong gains in the final rounds of voting.
India has held three rounds of a five-stage election, the world’s largest democratic exercise involving 670 million voters that pits the BJP-led coalition against the Congress party.
Exit polls after Monday’s third round of voting indicated that the BJP and its allies were still ahead of Congress but could fall short of the halfway mark of 273 seats needed to form a government in the 545-member lower house of Parliament.
The news rattled financial markets, worried that a weakened BJP might backtrack on economic reforms and slow rapid economic growth in the world’s second most populous nation.
The country’s main Bombay share index closed nearly four percent down yesterday on predictions of political uncertainty. The rupee weakened and federal bonds also wilted on the news.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee also poured scorn on the exit polls.
“I don’t know what this whole business of exit polls means,” Vajpayee told an election rally in his constituency, Lucknow.
“Sometimes I wonder when people come and congratulate me and say you’ve been victorious in an exit poll. They can be a means of making an assessment but not to draw conclusions.”
With exit polls for the first two out of five phases of elections keeping a difference between the NDA and the magical figure 273, post-poll alliances have begun being deliberated upon.
Ironically, while BJP-led NDA is hopeful of retaining its lead, the smaller anti-BJP forces are talking about a third front and not much consideration is being given to prospects of a Congress-led coalition.
Trying to display optimism about political luck favoring them in the subsequent rounds of elections, BJP president M. Venkaiah Naidu said yesterday, “We are confident of getting a comfortable majority.” Evading a direct reply to questions on whether BJP would search for new allies in the post-poll scenario, he said: “There is no need for thinking about post-poll alliances.” On whether, the NDA would consider new alliances, if it failed to secure a majority, Naidu replied: “In politics, it is very difficult to talk in ifs and buts.”
Most exit polls have predicted a hung Parliament, with the coalition needing at least 40 seats to touch the figure of 273.
A BJP spokesman said the ruling coalition had expected to lose some seats in the first three phases of the vote but would do better in the final two rounds, when voting is held in its strongholds.
The Congress party, headed by Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, said it was not surprised by the exit polls.
“This was what was envisaged from the beginning,” party spokesman Jaipal Reddy said. “This means the Congress and its allies may win a majority. The BJP began its campaign with bluster and are now finding themselves in a fluster.”
The ruling coalition won 306 seats in the last election in 1999. Opinion polls conducted before this election varied widely, but almost all predicted the BJP and its allies would get a majority.
