MADRAS, 29 April 2004 — With the results of the exit polls after the first two phasesof Indian elections indicating a hung Parliament, an old question has come back to haunt political circles in Tamil Nadu.

Will the erstwhile constituents of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), now forming the bulk of the opposition Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) in the state, bail out the BJP, if it falls short of a majority?

The statements of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vapayee and Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani about possibilities of new post-poll allies has confounded the issue further.

Most exit polls have indicated that the BJP and its allies will fall short of the minimum required 272 of the 543 member Lok Sabha, by figures ranging from 10 to 35 seats. They also indicate that the Congress too will be quite far from the half-way mark.

Given this scenario, Tamil Nadu parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhgam (DMK) and its non-Congress and non-Communist allies, have become targets of speculations. According to pre-election opinion polls, these parties are tipped to win 20 to 22 seats between them, which could prove crucial for the BJP.

But these parties are firm in their decision not to go back to the BJP fold. ‘’We will never again align with the BJP,’’ DMK President M. Karunanidhi said categorically. ‘’For four years we were with them, hoping that we could be a restraining influence on them. But we learned a bitter lesson.’’

And that is not just empty pre-poll rhetoric. Karunanidhi, more than anyone, realizes that his credibility and Dravidian credentials had taken a beating since the time he decided to join hands with the BJP in 1999. His party had traditionally had the support of Muslims in the state, whom he had alienated by aligning with the BJP.

Not withstanding the various explanations he had been offering for first joining the NDA and later for quitting it, the fact remains that Karunanidhi had been finding it difficult to live down the meek protest that his party had raised during the Gujarat carnage.

More importantly, the BJP is considering the AIADMK headed by J. Jayalalitha, which is in the last few years has evolved as a ‘soft Hindutva’ party, as its natural ally. And for the DMK, that automatically makes the BJP a natural adversary.

It is not just Karunanidhi, but also Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) founder Dr. S. Ramadoss and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) General Secretary Vaiko, who have declared that their divorce from the BJP is full and final.

Ramadoss, who before the formation of the DPA was considered the weak link inthe opposition unity, is as strident as a reformed sinner in proclaiming his opposition to the BJP. Though this opposition may not necessarily be based on ideological dispositions, the fact remains that Ramadoss too has his credibility at stake.

As a political leader, who has displayed remarkable proclivity in the last few years for changing sides, Ramadoss needs to erase this image of an ‘’opportunist’’ and a ‘’professional turncoat.’’

Similarly, for Vaiko, who for long term political prospects, has decided to sink or sail with the DMK, there are other reasons why he would not like to go back to the BJP.

Having spent 19 months in Vellore jail as a POTA detainee for making speeches allegedly supportive of the Sri Lankan rebel group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, an organization banned in India, Vaiko may feel justified in holding a grudge against the BJP for not doing anything to bail him out earlier.

The BJP itself has doubts about these parties coming back in the event of it falling a bit short of a majority, especially now that it is aligned with AIADMK.

‘’Maybe if we had stuck to our original idea of not having any alliance in Tamil Nadu, we might have been in a position for post-poll alignments, if needed,’’ said BJP Secretary L. Ganesan.