ISLAMABAD, 15 May 2004 — The dramatic election defeat of India’s Hindu fundamentalists will slow the fledgling peace process between India and Pakistan, analysts said yesterday, predicting more caution from a Congress-led government.

“The change of government will affect the momentum” created during the government of outgoing Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, said former Pakistani diplomat Kamal Matinuddin.

“I think there will be an element of delay because whatever ground had been covered by (Pakistani President Pervez) Musharraf and Vajpayee has to be recovered by Musharraf and Sonia Gandhi if she is the next prime minister,” political analyst Mohammad Afzal Niazi told AFP.

Congress, led by Italian-born Gandhi, has yet to name a prime minister, but whoever succeeds Vajpayee would most likely want to meet personally with Musharraf “at some multilateral forum,” Niazi said.

“There is a danger that Congress would not move ahead substantially without meeting personally with Musharraf.”

Vajpayee, 79, is credited with kickstarting the 13-month-old peace process between the nuclear armed rivals by offering a hand of friendship in April last year. Peace with Pakistan was his dream, he has said.

The rapport between him and Musharraf was cemented in January when the two produced a surprise agreement to resume formal dialogue after almost three years.

The two and their closest aides had worked on the agreement in secrecy for over six months. Both were hailed for taking the Kashmir dispute further forward than any previous leaders during the 56-year dispute.

The South Asian giants have fought three wars since Pakistan was created in 1947.

Just two years ago they were on the verge of a fourth war, which the world feared would turn nuclear, over Kashmir, the lush Himalayan region claimed by both countries but divided between them.

“The pace of dialogue may slow down as the new government will have its own priorities,” former information minister and ruling party Sen. Mushahid Hussain said.

“There was a personal rapport that had been established between the two leaders. It will take time to develop that rapport now.”

While the momentum was bound to slow with the change of leader, analysts said Congress leaders may be easier to deal with than Vajpayee, who many felt was hostage to hard-liners in his Bharatiya Janata party.

“Congress is hawkish in terms of Kashmir, but it is not as hawkish as BJP,” Niazi said.

“President Musharraf will find it easier to deal with Congress than the BJP.”

Hussain saw no setback to peace moves, “because Congress too has been saying it is committed to good relations with Pakistan.”

He believes the BJP lost the vote of India’s 150 million Muslims because of the 2002 Hindu-Muslim riots in western Gujarat state.

“The results show that Muslim votes did not go to the ruling coalition which means the carnage in Gujarat was not forgotten and forgiven,” he said.

Matinuddin expected foreign minister level talks to be held as scheduled in August, but was doubtful how much progress would be made.

“Serious outcome of the dialogue appears doubtful now,” Matinuddin told AFP.