RIYADH, 31 May 2004 — Al-Qaeda is changing its tactics. After targeting Western expatriates and security forces in the first phase of its terrorist attacks in the Kingdom, it has now turned its attention to oil companies and could later go for urban guerrilla war as part of its strategy to destabilize the Kingdom, according to a Saudi political scientist.
Dr. Abdullah Al-Otaibi, assistant professor of political science at King Saud University, told Arab News the May 1 attack on a petrochemical complex in Yanbu followed by Saturday’s shootout in Alkhobar’s APICORP Compound showed a consistent pattern.
Al-Qaeda terrorists “are out to strike against the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure and also Western expatriates manning those facilities as part of their sinister game to cripple the Saudi economy,” said Dr. Al-Otaibi, who has been monitoring various websites with Al-Qaeda links.
He said the websites provided an insight into the Al-Qaeda leadership. “It is pretty clear they are well-educated and shrewd in their thinking. They are taking calculated steps aimed at crippling the economy. And to win support for their cause, they are always putting their own spin on Qur’anic verses.”
“These leaders are brainwashing the youth,” he said. “That’s why those involved in the shootout were young Saudis.”
Dr. Al-Otaibi said the May 1 attacks on the ABB Lummus complex resulted in casualties among its employees and exodus of the remaining 90 ABB expatriate staff. The shooting at APICORP, the investment arm of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was intended to achieve the same goal — drive away the Western expats operating oil facilities.
The target was carefully chosen. Located in the compounds nearby were Royal Dutch Shell Group, Total SA and Saudi Aramco, Lukoil Holdings of Russia and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
The devastating attacks may lead to the imposition of what The Economist has called “terror premium”, which, according to oil traders, may be as high as $8 of the current per barrel price.
The strikes at economic targets resemble the strategy of the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka — to paralyze the economy of the country and sow seeds of panic among the people.
Dr. Al-Otaibi said he did not think a solution was in sight. “It’s a serious situation that calls for strong security measures within the framework of a comprehensive action plan.”
He said alongside military measures, the government will also have to put educational reforms in place, focusing especially on textbooks.
But the government faces a dilemma, he said. “Rushing through the educational reform program would be tantamount to acting under pressure from the Americans and these terrorists. So, understandably, the government does not want to be seen acting that way.”
Dr. Al-Otaibi suggests a greater degree of press freedom “both in the interest of the government and the people. Already, we are seeing some critical comments in the Arabic press. It’s a healthy trend, which needs to be encouraged.”
Asked about the degree of support Al-Qaeda enjoys among Saudis, he said that while a section of the population is sympathetic, others are indifferent. “Their attitude seems to be: ‘Why should I worry? The fight is between them and the government,’” Dr. Al-Otaibi said.
Al-Qaeda was for the time being trying to exploit the situation created by the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, he said. But nonetheless the Bush administration should try to be even-handed in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. “The US government’s stand is seen to be totally biased in favor of the Israelis. This is whipping up strong anti-American sentiments among the people. Al-Qaeda is just exploiting the situation,” he added.
