TUESDAY’S presidential election in the United States debunked the conventional wisdom in a number of ways. It attracted a record number of voters and, yet, contrary to conventional wisdom, the high turnout benefited the incumbent rather than the challenger. Conventional wisdom, this time backed by a large number of opinion polls, had predicted that President George Bush would either win with another wafer-thin majority or lose to his Democratic adversary, Sen. John Kerry. Early reports from exit polls appeared to confirm that by predicting a landslide for Kerry. By the time the day was over, however, Bush had collected more votes than anyone ever in US history. Later, conventional wisdom promised a long and arduous legal battle over the results. In the event, Kerry did the right thing by not unleashing the legal hounds. Having disproved conventional wisdom in so dramatic a manner, George W. Bush now has a unique opportunity to slaughter other clichés.
Bush’s victory, accentuated by his party’s gains in Senate, congressional and gubernatorial races, puts him in a stronger position than ever. That should help him revise his policies in Iraq, revive the Middle East peace process, and reformulate his Greater Middle East program within a more realistic framework with the help of regional allies. Under Bush the United States has become politically and militarily involved in the Middle East as never before. It is, therefore, essential for Bush to gain a better understanding of the region and its many conflicts and problems. One way to do this would be for Bush to travel to a region which, but for a four-hour incursion into Baghdad airport last year, he has never visited. The second Bush administration also needs to discover, or rediscover, the importance of public diplomacy, cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts.
The Middle East faces three important issues.
One is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that dates back more than half-a-century. It did not come into being on Bush’s watch and, most probably, will not be solved during his presidency either. But Bush has the merit of being the first American president to commit himself to the creation of a viable and genuinely independent Palestinian state. The whole region would be prepared to work with him and translate that pledge into reality.
The second problem in the region is Iraq’s uncertain future. Bush’s re-election is reassuring in the sense that he has said he would do what it takes to help Iraq rebuild what war has shattered. But Bush certainly needs to mobilize greater regional support for the Iraq project. The forthcoming conference in Sharm El-Shaikh, Egypt, provides a good opportunity for his administration to offer a new deal on Iraq.
The third major regional problem concerns the possibility of a nuclear arms race. The second Bush administration should go beyond exerting selective pressure and devise a broader policy that could lead to the creation of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. Despite claims, often echoed in the media, most nations in our region are prepared to work with the US in a common quest for solutions to these three key problems.
Having established his reputation as a war leader, Bush should use his second four-year term to become known as a peacemaker.
