The decision by the interim Iraqi government to seek a 60-day state of emergency in almost two-thirds of the national territory may, if not handled properly, do more harm than good.
Anxious not to harm President George W. Bush’s re-election hopes, the Iraqi interim government shied away from taking a decision that should have come last summer before the insurgency reached its current level of intensity. Interim Prime Minister Iyad Al-Allawi was also anxious not to appear as just another brutal Middle Eastern ruler, this time without a mustache.
We now know that the decision to declare a state of emergency was taken with Washington’s full accord. The United State’s Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage paid a secret visit to Baghdad Saturday and Sunday to provide the green light. The proposed emergency, to be ratified by the interim Parliament in Baghdad, will cover 13 of Iraq’s provinces. This is a dramatic admission that the insurgency is more widespread than the interim government had claimed. Only two days ago Allawi said in an interview that the violence concerned only three provinces.
The emergency is expected to come into effect as Iraqi troops, backed by the US Marines, move to launch the long-expected assault on Fallujah, a rebel town west of Baghdad. It was to relieve pressure on Fallujah that the insurgents and their terrorist allies initiated a series of attacks in other cities, including Haditha, Baqubah, Ramadi and even the recently pacified Samarra. It is not clear what impact these attacks may have had in purely military terms. What is certain is that they have given Allawi the excuse he needed to propose the state of emergency.
Under Iraq’s Interim Constitution the state of emergency involves the imposition of severe restrictions on the media coverage of the events. It also gives the authorities the right to arrest virtually anyone they like, without a prior mandate signed by a judge, and hold him for up to 60 days. Also under the emergency Iraqi security forces would be free to take off the kid gloves. Bearing in mind Iraq’s culture of political violence and grim memories of despotism, the proposed emergency may seem to many Iraqis like a return of the bad old days.
Unless the emergency is handled with care, the interim government may well antagonize the overwhelming majority of the Iraqi people who have kept faith in their democratic prospects and are looking forward to next year’s series of elections.
All insurgents try to bring down the authority that they defy to their own level of disregard for law, human rights, and simple decency. Iraq’s insurgents, and the various terrorist groups that may or may not be directly linked with them, are no exception. It is important that the Iraqi interim government does not fall in that trap.
While defeating the insurgents and restoring law and order are important priorities, the top priority is to persuade the majority of the Iraqi people that their future should be determined through elections not violence and counterviolence. Premier Allawi, and the entire new leadership in Iraq, should beware of winning a tactical victory at the risk of a strategic political defeat.
