With Yasser Arafat “in the hands of God”, according to Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath, the world must prepare for dealing with his political successors.
So far, the Palestinian leadership has acted with great wisdom and tact in transferring essential aspects of Arafat’s power in accordance with the Basic Law (constitution) as well as good political sense. The remaining power, Arafat’s position as president of the Palestinian Authority, has been largely symbolic for the past four years. It is expected to be filled by the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, pending elections within 60 days.
The smooth transfer owes a great deal to two men: Mahmoud Abbas who takes over as acting chairman of he Palestine Liberation Organization and chairman of the Al-Fatah Central Committee, and Prime Minister Ahmad Qorei who becomes acting chairman of the National Security Council. Tribute must also be paid to other Palestinian leaders, including those of organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad that have no official representation within the Palestinian Authority. It seems that the prospects of life without Arafat have concentrated the minds of the Palestinians, forcing them to leave differences aside and unite. Predictions of a Palestinian civil war, as made by the Israeli media for the last two weeks, have proved false so far. In fact, it is possible to say that Palestinians have seldom been as united as they are today.
The new face of the Palestinian leadership should make it easier for all concerned to revive the stalled peace process on the basis of the two-states formula proposed by President George W. Bush. It is important that any return to peace talks be carefully prepared in advance. It is also important that a decision that might pre-empt a negotiated settlement be postponed. These include the Israeli government’s plan for unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, a move that is seen by many Palestinians as an attempt at reducing any future Palestinian state to the narrow strip. Israel must also make some confidence-building gestures, including the lifting of restrictions on normal life in the occupied territories.
For their part the Palestinians must halt their suicide attacks against Israel, allowing the new leadership to establish itself and build a base from which to seek negotiations.
The key to all this is free elections. Preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections have been under way for months. The slow pace is partly due to Israeli restrictions on movements within the territories, and partly by Arafat’s desire to postpone the polls for as long as possible. These preparations need to be speeded up to make sure that all eligible voters are registered in time for the elections that could come within the next two months. The outside world could help by providing financial support and a multinational peacekeeping force to supervise the elections.
The next few weeks could be decisive in setting the course of events. Given the chance, the Palestinians are prepared to move toward democracy. But any faux pas by Israel and/or the United States could derail the process and push the Palestinians toward radical and extremist movements.
