All men of good will in Pakistan, India and Kashmir want peace. The alternative is unthinkable. India stands on the threshold of world economic power from which Pakistan can also expect to benefit substantially. Kashmir itself needs to capitalize upon its status as one of the world’s most beautiful and desirable tourist destinations. Further conflict must not be allowed to occur but in order for it to be avoided, serious negotiation by all parties is a requirement.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz is currently touring seven regional capitals in his capacity as chairman of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. His visit to New Delhi provided an opportunity to discuss Kashmir face to face with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as well as Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and the members of India’s opposition parties. The talks between the two prime ministers were described afterward as “friendly and cordial.” That is not enough. The peace process must begin building upon the newfound amity between the two governments and produce positive developments.
The Indian approach seeks the normalization of both economic and political ties as quickly as possible. To this end, Indian troop numbers are being reduced in Kashmir. The thinking in Delhi is doubtless that as both countries begin to enjoy the benefits of renewed neighborliness, the likelihood of tension returning will be reduced. Unfortunately this ignores the strong feelings among ordinary people which have been stoked by previous Indian and Pakistani governments for almost 60 years. The Kashmir issue has become laden with so much extra baggage — not least the issue of national pride. Delhi needs to recognize that renewed commercial and political ties will not be strong enough to survive a retreat to historic antagonisms.
It is necessary to supplement India’s normalization scheme with actual progress on the real issue itself, the future of Kashmir. Thus far, it has been Pakistan that has done most. President Pervez Musharraf has presented three possible options pertaining to Kashmir’s status, ranging from autonomy to partition to shared sovereignty. Most crucially, he has also indicated that Islamabad may abandon its key insistence that the future of Kashmir be decided by the Kashmiri people in a UN-sponsored plebiscite. This is a major concession which has not yet drawn any comparable move from New Delhi. The longer that Musharraf’s initiative rests unrecognized on the table, the greater the risk that extremists in Pakistan will be able to claim that talking with India is leading nowhere and that violence must resume. Both sides must soon address the tough questions, which, on a purely bilateral basis, will be difficult. It may not be too late to bring in an honest broker such as the Norwegians. Inviting a facilitator has nothing to do with sovereignty. What must not happen, however, is for the process to advance no further than a facade of friendship and cordiality lest the smiles freeze and fade and the handshakes become weak and insincere.
