After President Hamid Karzai took the oath of office yesterday as Afghanistan’s first directly elected president, he delivered an upbeat inaugural address, full of hope for the future of his ravaged and divided country. As he looked around at the guests, who included US Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, his private thoughts may have differed from his public words. His concern, and that of all Afghans who look to a stable and prosperous future, is that the international community will not deliver its promised support and aid, and without that, the transformation of Afghanistan cannot be achieved.
The Americans came to Afghanistan with the aim of defeating terrorism. American soldiers are still in the country because the fight was much more difficult than they expected. Karzai’s mandate has now been legitimized by an election which, despite shortcomings, has been judged fair. If, however, Washington remains fixated upon a purely military defeat of terror, it can never be victorious. Karzai knows that unless the root causes of terrorism, poverty and factionalism in Afghanistan are addressed, the men of violence and the destabilizing presence of the warlords will remain a threat. It does not matter how many Taleban and Al-Qaeda fighters are killed, there will always be desperate and deluded people who are ready to take their place.
The challenge in Afghanistan is arguably now more manageable than the one in Iraq. Militarily the terrorists there are on the back foot. The multitude of forces throughout the country are content to allow the relatively weak central government in Kabul to continue. This precarious stability cannot, however, last indefinitely, even with international forces to protect the government and its institutions.
Karzai has often been heard to use the catch phrase “national participation.” But he knows very well that exhortation alone is not going to convince these historically independent and often fiercely proud factional leaders to work together for the greater benefit of Afghanistan. The last 31 years of conflict since the Moscow-inspired coup have effectively eroded all ties that once held these groups together. A generation of Afghans has grown up with almost constant war. The capital, Kabul, no longer necessarily represents the seat of power and authority. People have become accustomed to the more accessible and understandable rule of their ethnic leaders. They may call themselves Afghans, but many feel themselves first and foremost Pushtuns or Uzbeks or Tajiks and even subdivide this further into clans. Nevertheless, against all the odds and predictions, they have elected a president but this alone will not reunify the country. Kabul and the central government must have something tangible beyond political legitimacy to offer all its people.
The world simply has to deliver on its promised; if undelivered, the future of Afghanistan will become even less hopeful. There will be a resurgence of terrorism.
