British Prime Minister Tony Blair has won another term in office, albeit with a much reduced majority in Parliament. It is a historic result because, for the first time, Labour has won a third consecutive victory. Until not long ago, the Conservatives were seen as the “natural” party of government. Labour would sometimes win, and even win a second term, but after messing up the economy, the country would then revert to the Conservatives to put affairs in order. The British public has now shown that it trusts Labour to run the country. On Thursday it was demonstrably the “natural” party of British government.
Thursday’s election confirms other significant changes in the British political map. It is clear that the Conservatives are on the road to recovery. They have finally managed to put their image problems behind them and reassert themselves as a credible force — not all over the country, but certainly in London and the southeast; and where London and the southeast ventures, the rest of the country sooner or later follows. More importantly, three-party politics, with all the implications that it entails, is now firmly entrenched in Britain. The Liberal Democrats, hitherto the small, third force, have proved themselves as important as Labour and the Conservatives.
The British may have shown that they trust Labour to run the country, but it is highly debatable whether they trust Blair, despite the fact that he is responsible for changing the face of British politics and making Labour the natural party of government. Much was said in the campaign about Iraq. It played an important part, although no one should delude themselves into thinking that the anti-Blair swing was simply an anti-Iraq war vote — other than in those places where the Muslim vote was strong. Voters in London and the southeast did not switch to the Conservatives because of opposition to the war. Its role was the damage it did to Blair’s credibility. Blair and New Labour won the 1997 and 2001 elections not because of its policies but because of the sleaze and scandals attached to the Conservatives. Blair was seen as Mr. Clean. No longer. He is widely seen as having misled his Cabinet colleagues, Parliament and the British public over the invasion, and Labour’s sharp drop in votes is the direct result.
Blair comes out of this election victorious but profoundly damaged. The sharp drop in his majority will undermine his control over his party. He had said that this would be his last election as prime minister and that he would hand over to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown before the next contest. Brown’s star was already in the ascendant, Blair’s on the wane. This result will accelerate that process as Labour MPs look to the future and to their own self-interest. Blair has made Labour the natural party of British government but, just like the Conservatives who unceremoniously ditched Mrs. Thatcher when she was perceived as a liability, it will not thank him. Meanwhile, with the media constantly pressing him on when he plans to go, he risks being something of a lame-duck leader.
