Iranian politics is not without its problems. The establishment’s hold on power, especially the Guardian Council’s disbarring of over a thousand prospective candidates from this Friday’s presidential elections, is not to the liking of all Iranians - and, given reports of disillusionment, particularly among the young, it will be interesting to see the turnout. Despite stories of alienation, despite the condemnation of the elections by the New-York based Human Rights Watch because of the Council’s policy of debarring candidates, passions have been muted and violence completely absent from the political scene — until now. That is why Sunday’s deadly bomb blasts in the capital and the southwestern city of Ahvaz are so worrying — all the more so because Ahvaz is both the capital of Iran’s province of Khuzestan from which the bulk of the country’s oil comes and — unique in Iran — a majority Arab city. The explosions imply a double danger — to the country’s all important oil industry and the possibility of a new ethnic dispute. It is to be ardently hoped that the bombs are not a sign of things to come. Saner counsel must prevail. It is not just for Iran’s sake; it is for all our sakes. Instability in Iran could affect the region and also have a dramatic destabilizing effects on the price of oil.
Iranian government officials have blamed Arab separatists for being behind this new terror campaign, aided and abetted by the insurgent People’s Mujahideen based in neighboring Iraq, the last vestiges of the Baath Party and of course, the US and the UK. Lumping them altogether does not sound quite credible nor is there any evidence to support the claims. Tehran also says that the blasts were linked to Friday’s election. That makes more sense, although what the objective might be is less easy to discover. The government says that the aim was to undermine Friday’s contest. It is difficult to see how a bomb campaign would do that; on the contrary, it is more likely to rally voters to the polls. There is, though, a clear link with April’s riots in Ahvaz between ethnic Arabs and Iranian security forces in which at least one demonstrator died and over 200 other were arrested — but, again, it is impossible to be specific about the nature of that link. The disturbances resulted from a letter purporting to come from former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi which called for a change in the Arab character of Ahvaz — both bringing non-Arabs to the city and forcing Arabs out. Understandably, local Arabs were shocked and frightened, but it now seems that the letter may have been a forgery. In which case, someone else was intent on stirring up trouble between Iranian Arabs and the government in Tehran. Whoever that was may also be behind Sunday’s explosions.
The Iranian authorities are understandably sensitive to ethnic issues. Iran is a country of several nationalities apart from Farsi-speaking Iranians who are only just in the majority. As well as Kurds (there have been problems with them in the past), Azeris, Armenians, Turkmens, Baluchis, Qashqais, and Bakhtiaris, there are the Arabs, who constitute 3 percent of the population. Whether the offending letter was forged or not, it has clearly stirred up a hornet’s nest. It needs to be resolved very carefully — through dialogue. Violence is no answer. It will only result in more violence.
