Philippine President Gloria Arroyo and her supporters hope that her admission that she told an election official last year she wanted a million-vote victory margin in the presidential election, but denying that she had tried to rig the election, will tone down the heat in the so-called “Gloriagate” scandal. But it is debatable. The allegations that a taped conversation between her and the official, given to the media three weeks ago, proves that she rigged the election may now subside is difficult to imagine. For a start, her admission proves the authenticity of the tape recording at the center of the crisis. For those who want to believe the worst of her, the fact that she subsequently beat the late Fernando Poe Jr. by 1.1 million votes is all the proof they need that election officials bowed to her wishes and cooked the results. Her opponents are certainly not going to take her explanation at face value that she had a “lapse of judgment.” They are going to make as much of this as they can; it is going to stymie politics in the Philippines for some time to come. In Congress, in the media, on the streets, it is going to be the issue.
The opposition is not keen on taking the impeachment route as they do not have the numbers. That’s why they will probably do everything else first to bring about another people power revolution that had brought her to power in the first place. That is bad for the Philippines. It means a lame duck presidency. The easy logic would be to say that even if the allegations are not true, President Arroyo should put her country’s best interests first and let someone else get on with the job of running the country unhindered by such an embarrassing diversion. In similar situations elsewhere, many an honorable — and innocent — politician has done precisely that. But the logic in this case is not that straightforward. It is one thing — and an easy one at that — to replace a minister or an official accused or wrongdoing. But with heads of state and governments, it is a major upheaval. Arroyo’s resignation would not end the crisis in the Philippines; it would open the door to another, possibly even deeper one. Who would take over from her? Would there be an election? When would that happen? Normal political life might be put into cold storage for ages. Anyway, is she guilty as her opponents claim? Of course they are going say that. But a conversation with an election official, unwise though it was, is no proof of wrongdoing. It may well be that she is being extremely calculating in handling this — that she only admitted what she did because the country’s moral scourge of corrupt politicians, Cardinal Sin, is now dead. Her credibility has suffered.
It is amazing what politicians can get away with. Former US President Clinton was impeached over the “Monicagate” scandal; his denial under oath of sex with Ms. Lewinski almost redefined truth; but in the end, he got away with it. Arroyo is unpopular at present, not because of the Gloriagate scandal but because of economic recession and proposed budget reforms. Demonstrations on the scandal have not been particularly well attended. If that remains so, the media and the opposition will tire of the story. The danger for her is that if the economy continues to flounder, an alienated public may decide to believe the worst of her and take to the streets in protest at imagined votes stolen. That could be her undoing.
