Dissatisfaction will always trigger change — as it did in Iran. Sixty three percent of the Iranians who voted in the final election round voted for the 48-year-old mayor of Tehran. Also a former provincial governor, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and a doctoral degree holder, Ahmadinejad has been a surprise winner.
The Iranian brand of guided-democracy has brought Ahmadinejad to power. Ayatollah Khamenei and his chosen clerics lay down strict parameters for the functioning of the Iranian democracy and of the Iranian society. For example from 1000 presidential candidates the 12-member Guardian Council only cleared eight.
A man of modest means Ahmadinejad was voted in by the religious poor. By all accounts his support base extends to the inner circles of Iran’s state apparatus controlled by unelected religious clerics. He also has the support of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
The relatively young Ahmadinejad won by an impressive lead over his rival, the former two-term President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani was supported by pro-reform parties and by wealthy Iranians looking for a more open society.
In his first public comments Iran’s president-elect said he wants to create a “modern, advanced and Islamic” role model for the world. About Iran he said that “We are one nation and one big family. We should help each other to make a great society.” To achieve this openness, tolerance and mutual respect must be promoted within society.
With lavish use of rhetoric Ahmadinejad message to the world was that “a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 (the current Iranian year) will, if God wills, cut off the roots of injustice in the world. The era of oppression, hegemonic regimes, tyranny and injustice has reached its end...The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world.”
From the other side of the divide this is much like Bush’s message of freedom and justice that Bush sends to the world.
Ahmadinejad’s power base is a section of the Iranian public plus the powerful Iranian state. Iran’s poor and dejected look to him for salvation. An oil-rich state, Iran is currently steeped in unemployment. For its citizens the promise of the revolution has yet to be made good. The president-elect is viewed by his supporters as the legitimate offspring of the Iranian revolution, one who can deliver make good on the promise of the revolution. Ahmadinejad’s victory has provided a political partner to the Iranian state that has been at odds with the outgoing president. On issues of intellectual and social freedoms, tensions during Khatami’s era continued between the state institutions and the elected Parliament and the presidency. Now they will function in unity.
Meanwhile on the foreign policy front Ahmadinejad will essentially operating within a preset dynamic. Change may come in style, not in the substance of foreign policy. Relations with Arab neighbors will remain on track. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the GCC states have all welcomed his election.
Issues like Iran-US relations, Iran’s nuclear program and Israel are also to a broader context. US’ own policy has also greatly contributed to the prevailing confrontation.
Given the US reaction to Ahmadinejad’s victory Tehran may opt for more aggressive posturing toward the US. Already two of the 51 hostages have identified the new president as on of the men who captured them in the embassy takeover. The rest of the 49 have no recall. Still sections of the US media have referred to him as a “terrorist.” For the rabid anti-Iran men in the Bush administration the “terrorist card” prove handy.
Even otherwise in the existing atmosphere the possibility of an Iran-US dialogue appears minimal. The indirect debate between the two however continues: Mostly in black and white terms. All communication is framed within a zero-sum equation. One must negate the other, label the other as evil, tyrannical, unjust and even “blood-thirsty.” Puritanical positions do not help.
For the sake of internal peace within Iran and for peace within the region a rapprochement between Iran and the US is crucial. Historically hard-line conservative forces have always managed opening with former foes — as the republican US President Richard Nixon managed with China, BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee managed with Pakistan and a military ruler President Pervez Musharraf is managing with India. Maybe Iran’s new hard-line president-elect maybe the man to bury the quarter century old hatchet with the US. But for that US President George Bush will also have to come forward and meet half way.
