KABUL, 13 September 2005 — Millions of Afghans will vote next Sunday for a National Assembly and provincial councils, a milestone in Afghanistan’s difficult path to stability after the fall of the Taleban.
The vote will be a step forward to broadening representative government but analysts say the fledgling democracy remains fragile and many years of international support will be needed before it can stand on its own.
“People are really overestimating what these elections will accomplish,” said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University. “Basic institutions are at a very poor state of development. Until Afghanistan has a functioning, legal economy and basic institutions, there’s nothing really for a Parliament to do except act as a kind of puppet platform for people’s views.” About 12 million of Afghanistan’s 25-28 million people are registered to vote in the UN-backed polls, the first of their kind since 1969. They follow presidential elections in October won by US-backed incumbent Hamid Karzai.
Critics say the voting system is likely to produce a fragmented Parliament that is both conservative and parochial, and possibly more of a hindrance than a help to government.
The polls are being fought on a non-party basis but parties have candidates running and envisage parliamentary blocs. Opposition leader Yunus Qanuni, head of the National Understanding Front coalition, hopes to win 50 percent of seats.
The election comes nearly four years after US-led forces overthrew the Taleban for refusing to give up Osama Bin Laden, responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks on US cities in 2001.
Meanwhile, frustration has been growing among Afghans about a lack of progress to improve their lives. Analysts say a successful vote, with a high turnout despite Taleban intimidation, would be a significant boost for a US administration reeling from the fallout from Hurricane Katrina and its bloody involvement in Iraq.
The United Nations says the polls will not be perfect, given Taleban threats and questions about the past of some of the 5,800 candidates. But it says Afghanistan badly needs more representative government after years of rule by presidential decree.
“In spite of existing insecurity, holding these elections is the right thing to do,” UN Special Representative Jean Arnault said in an interview. “Most Afghans are keen to have them.” Karzai’s administration has drawn criticism over a perceived misuse of aid money and many have been disappointed by a failure to prosecute those responsible for war crimes and the fact that some of them are candidates.
One of the assembly’s first jobs will be to approve Karzai’s ministers and already the opposition says some might not win their backing. Analysts say the massive drug economy presents perhaps the biggest threat to stability, greater even than the Taleban.
“Taleban violence is manageable as long as Western countries are devoted to staying,” said Olivier Roy, of the French National Center for Scientific Research.
“But drugs mean corruption, and as long as the local governor or police officer can make more money with drugs than from his salary, government will not work.” Fallout from Hurricane Katrina and Iraq has raised concern that Washington might want to cut its commitment in Afghanistan, where it provides two thirds of foreign troops.
