BAGHDAD, 17 October 2005 — Iraq’s constitution seemed assured of passage yesterday, despite strong opposition from Sunni Arabs, who voted in surprisingly high numbers in an effort to stop it.
Initial estimates of overall turnout on Saturday were 61 percent, election officials said. The constitution’s apparent victory was muted, though, by the prospect that the result might divide the country further.
US President Bush congratulated Iraqis on the vote and said the new constitution was a victory for opponents of terrorism.
“The vote today in Iraq is in stark contrast to the attitude, the philosophy and strategy of Al-Qaeda, their terrorist friends and killers,” Bush said.
Rejection appeared highly unlikely after initial vote counts showed that a majority supported the constitution in two of the four provinces that Sunni Arab opponents were relying on to defeat it.
Opponents needed to get a two-thirds “no” vote in three of those provinces. They may have reached the threshold in Anbar and Salaheddin, but Diyala and Nineveh provinces appeared to have supported the document by a wide margin.
The latter three have Sunni majorities but also powerful Shiite and Kurdish communities, which made them focal points for the political battle.
In Diyala, 70 percent supported the referendum, 20 percent opposed it, said Adil Abdel-Latif, the head of the election commission in Diyala. The result came from a first count of the approximately 400,000 votes cast.
At least one more count was being conducted to confirm the votes, which would then be sent to Baghdad, where results from all provinces are being collected for final confirmation.
According to a vote count from 275 of Nineveh’s 300 polling stations, about 326,000 people supported the constitution and 90,000 opposed it, said Abdul-Ghani Ali Yehya, spokesman for the election commission in the province’s capital, Mosul.
Ballots from the remaining 25 stations were still being brought to the central counting center, he said.
A nationwide majority “yes” vote is assured by the widespread support of the Shiites, who make up 60 percent of Iraq’s estimated 27 million people, and the Kurds, who make up another 20 percent. Abdul-Hussein Al-Hendawi, a top official in the election commission, stressed there were no final results yet from Saturday’s vote.
The constitution is a crucial step in Iraq’s transition to democracy after two decades of rule by Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship. Washington hopes it passes so Iraqis can form a legitimate, representative government, tame the insurgency and enable the 150,000 US troops to begin withdrawing.
If the constitution is approved, Iraqis will choose a new Parliament in Dec. 15 elections. Parliament then will select a new government, which must take office by Dec. 31.
If the charter is defeated, Parliament will dissolve, but the December elections will go ahead as planned. The new Parliament then will draft another constitution and present it to voters in a second referendum.
Few people turned out to vote in the Anbar province, the vast region that is the heartland of the Sunni Arab minority. The exception was Fallujah, where thousands turned out. Opposition to the constitution is powerful there and likely would push results past the two-thirds threshold for a “no” vote in Anbar.
Sunni Arabs widely opposed the charter, fearing it will break the country into three sections: Powerful Kurdish and Shiite mini-states in the oil-rich north and south, and a weak and impoverished Sunni zone in central and western Iraq.
