CAIRO, 2 November 2005 — Migratory pathways make an outbreak in the Middle East of H5N1 bird flu almost inevitable, although no evidence of the virus’ deadly strain has yet been found in the region, a senior official said.
“As the migratory season progresses, the Middle East will become more threatened while Europe will be less at risk,” Ken Earhart, executive officer of Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU) in Cairo, told AFP.
Scientists believe that the deadly strain of avian influenza is spreading through the movements of migratory birds, which peak in mid to end November when they move to their winter locations.
“We have found no evidence of the H5N1 moving to the Middle East,” said Earhart, whose research centre is the most sophisticated virology laboratory in the region and receives samples to be analyzed from several countries. H5N1 is an avian influenza subtype with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Only three flu pandemics occurred during the entire 20th century.
The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed more than 60 people and prompted the culling of 140 million birds in Asia in the past two years.
Samples from two dead chickens found in northern Iraq have been sent for analysis in the Cairo center but no evidence of the deadly strain was discovered to date.
Earhart explained however that conclusive testing could take anything between a day and several weeks, depending on the nature of the preliminary results and the quality of the samples.
He said some 500 samples had been tested over the past month at the NAMRU facility, as sprawling US naval research center that employs some 300 people and was initially established in Cairo as the US typhoid commission in 1942. After the H5N1 virus was detected in several countries around the Middle East such as Turkey, Romania and Russia, observers have been expecting it to eventually reach the region.
“People feel that’s inevitable... It’s more a when than an if,” Earhart admitted.
Egypt could be a prime target as it lies on one of the main migratory arteries. Birds heading south from eastern Europe make halts in Nile’s delta and valley, both internationally renowned bird-watching spots.
Egypt banned poultry imports as a precautionary measure, called off the bird hunting season and tightened airport quarantines.
Dozens of observation posts were also set up along border areas to monitor the bird population.
Other countries have taken similar measures, but doubts remain over the region’s preparedness should a pandemic break out. One concern is the availability of anti-virals such as Tamiflu, one of the recommended treatments.
