RIYADH, 24 November 2005 — Saudi Arabia projects an average 4.6 percent annual economic growth over the 2005-2009 period backed by an expected 1.56 percent rise each year in the value of oil exports, the backbone of its economy.
The world’s top oil supplier expects the value of its crude exports to rise to SR398.5 billion ($106.3 billion) by 2009, up 8 percent from SR368.8 billion in 2004, details of the 2005-2009 five-year economic plan showed.
Economic growth over the 2000-2004 plan was 3.44 percent a year. “The projected total value of oil exports (in 2009) represents 34.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) against 39.7 percent in 2004,” the economy and planning ministry said on its Web site.
The figures suggest Saudi Arabia, which plans to raise oil output capacity by 14 percent to 12.5 million barrels per day by 200, is using conservative estimates to guard against any fall in crude oil prices.
Officials at the Planning and Economy Ministry could not be reached for comment. The ministry published no projection for the price of oil over the five-year period covered by the plan. Despite price fluctuations, oil receipts rose at an average annual pace of 17.5 percent over the 2000-2004 period.
The average 4.6 percent growth in the economy should hike GDP to SR895.2 billion by 2009, up 25 percent from SR715 billion in 2004, the ministry said. The GDP figures were based on constant 1999 prices. Plans for the longer term provide for a GDP of SR1.189 trillion in 2014 and SR2.542 trillion in 2024, also at 1999 prices. The 2005-09 plan is based on inflation at an annual 0.6 percent, against annual deflation of 0.6 percent over the previous five years. “One of the main targets of this plan is to improve living standards of Saudis,” said the ministry, which expects an 11 percent rise in “GDP per Saudi capita”, which stood at SR43,300 in 2004.