JEDDAH, 7 February 2006 — Scott Nauman, ExxonMobil’s corporate planning manager, highlighted that his company expects an increase of about 50 percent in global energy demand, reaching close to 335 million barrels per day by the year 2030.
Nauman, who also serves as ExxonMobil’s manager of the economy and energy division, expressed the oil multinational company’s global energy future outlook in a presentation hosted by the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) on Saturday in Riyadh.
In the presentation, which was entitled “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030,” Nauman also highlighted ExxonMobil’s assessment of oil’s global supply and demand through 2030.
ExxonMobil’s outlook underscored the connection between economic growth and energy consumption, and the importance of meeting key energy supply and demand challenges to improve economic prosperity around the world.
ExxonMobil expects the world’s population to grow to eight billion by 2030. This is approximately 25 percent higher than today’s population level. Coinciding with this population growth is the continuing economic growth, both in developed and developing economies. According to Nauman, this combination of population and economic growth would lead to a primary energy demand increase of approximately 50 percent. The vast majority (80 percent) of the increase is expected to occur in non-OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) member countries.
According to Nauman, as demand rises, energy efficiency will become increasingly important, with the pace of improvement likely to accelerate. This accelerated pace is the outcome of expected improvements in personal transportation and power generation driven by the introduction of new technologies, as well as a myriad of other improvements which span the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
Oil, gas and coal will remain predominant energy sources with approximately 80 percent share of total energy. These well-established fuel sources are the only ones with the versatility and scale to meet the majority of the world’s growing energy needs. Nuclear power will likely be a growing option to meet electricity needs. Alternative fuels, like solar and wind power, will grow rapidly, underpinned by government subsidies and mandates. But even with assumptions of robust 10 percent per year growth, solar and wind will represent just one percent of the total energy portfolio by 2030.
Nauman also addressed the supply outlook. A discussion of global oil resources highlighted the long life supply that still remains. A world liquid production outlook explored the trends among OPEC and non-OPEC production. Natural gas supply and demand, including liquefied natural gas, were also addressed.
As for the contribution of technological advances to energy, Nauman said ExxonMobil would play a pivotal role to successfully meet the significant energy demand, supply and environmental challenges ahead.
“With 25 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and the fourth largest proven gas reserves, Saudi Arabia has undoubtedly carved itself a strong niche in the sector on an international scale,” commented SAGIA governor, Amr Al-Dabbagh.