JEDDAH, 5 August 2006 — An American think-tank is predicting an extended battle in the coming days for supremacy on the ground in southern Lebanon between Israel and the well-entrenched Hezbollah fighters.

The Texas-based Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor), which earlier detailed Israeli ground invasion plans, now reports that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will likely seek to expand their control north of the Litani River and into the Bekaa Valley in an effort to neutralize Hezbollah militarily and pave the way for an international peacekeeping force to take control of Lebanon’s southern borderlands.

Stratfor predicts that Israel will succeed militarily — but not without significant political damage and the likelihood of a large number of casualties in what could become an extremely bitter and bloody confrontation.

Analysts say the fighting will intensify as Hezbollah uses a strategy similar to the World War II Japanese scheme for the defense of Pacific Islands. Fighting in small cadres,

Hezbollah fighters will defend well-prepared and pre-supplied citadels that will operate without links to a central command and control or hope of re-supply — essentially a fight to the death taking as many Israeli troops as possible with them in the process.

“Hezbollah is now fighting the war it wanted and prepared for,” said the report. “Its forces are well-dispersed and dug into bunkers. Supplies for extended combat have undoubtedly been distributed in these strongholds so they require no re-supply. Command has clearly devolved to the lowest possible unit, so contact with central headquarters is not necessary for fighting. Hezbollah is not going to be engaged in maneuver. It will fight where it stands.”

The report says Hezbollah will claim victory if its planned “last stands” force a political settlement or if it becomes the first Arab force to inflict heavy casualties on the IDF. Israel will claim victory if Hezbollah’s military arm is destroyed and a peacekeeping force takes control before the political fallout from the confrontation is too great.

Israel, the Stratfor report says, realizes that it will have a very short time to prosecute the invasion before the world powers demand a halt. Analysts say that Hezbollah plans to capitalize on Israel’s time constraints by prolonging hostilities for as long as possible, forcing Israel to commit more troops to the battle and subjecting them to murderous combat.

Evaluating the missile threat Hezbollah poses to Israel, Stratfor predicts that the Israeli Army will try to wrest control of territory around Hermel, Baalbek and Riyaq to protect Haifa and Tel Aviv from continued rocket fusillades. If the range of Hezbollah rockets increases, so will the amount of Lebanese territory of interest to Israeli forces.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah slammed 230 rockets into northern Israel. And on Thursday Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah warned in a televised speech that his group would attack Tel Aviv if Beirut is hit. “If Beirut is hit we will hit Tel Aviv. We have the means to do that,” he said.

The Stratfor report says to guarantee an end to rocket attacks, “Israel will have to push Hezbollah back to Riyaq to eliminate the threat from Zelzal-2 rockets, to Baalbek to protect Tel Aviv, and to Hermel to protect Haifa. To protect against the Fajr-5, Israel will have to push as deep as 10 miles north of the Litani along the coast.”

(The Israeli Army received orders from Defense Minister Amir Peretz to prepare for an eventual seizure of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, Peretz’s spokesman told AFP on Thursday.

(“The Israeli Army has received the order to prepare for the next step of the offensive, whose aim is to quickly take control of southern Lebanon from the international border to the Litani River,” the spokesman added.)

The Litani River runs from east to west across southern Lebanon and is in various locations between 5 km and 30 km from the Israeli border. An Israeli push toward the river would leave its forces in control of Lebanese territory about 30 km wide and 30 km deep.

As of the report’s Aug. 1 release date, Stratfor estimated that there were 60 armored Israeli bulldozers demolishing Hezbollah redoubts in southern Lebanon. “Hezbollah has drawn Israel in,” the report said. “It expects a catastrophic blow but its intention is to impose tremendous costs on Israel and then create a situation in which peacekeeping forces will not deploy, forcing Israel into a counterinsurgency.”

Stratfor, a private company that provides intelligence information to the business world, noted that Israel’s military strengths include mobility and firepower, but Hezbollah’s apparent intention of fighting without hope of relief, re-supply or retreat would negate some of those advantages.

Stratfor also predicts that the Hezbollah citadel strategy is likely to be in place in the Bekaa Valley, which means — if the analysts are correct — that Lebanon will likely see much more bloodshed in the days to come as the aggressor (Israel) battles with the defender (Hezbollah).