RAMALLAH, 20 June 2006 — Palestinians might not pass a statehood referendum called by President Mahmoud Abbas because many see the vote as a symbol of his power struggle with the Hamas government, a leading pollster said yesterday.
While 75 percent of Palestinians in a new survey said they support a manifesto for statehood that implicitly recognizes Israel, only 47 percent said they would vote in favor of the document if a referendum were held on it today.
The survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research said 44 percent would vote against.
“The referendum is a bad idea for Abu Mazen,” said Khalil Shikaki, the director of the research center, referring to Abbas by his nickname. “The sympathy, when it comes to the referendum, is with the underdog, and in this case that is Hamas. Most people like the document as it stands, but the climate of opinion is not in favor of a referendum,” he added.
Abbas has said he will hold a referendum on the document on July 26 unless Hamas, which took office in March, agrees to support it.
Hamas opposes key parts of the proposal, which was drawn up by influential prisoners in an Israeli jail. The group is officially sworn to destroy the Jewish state.
However, there are indications that Hamas and Abbas’ Fatah movement may agree on a reworked document in the days ahead, which could cancel the need for a referendum and ease tensions. Around 20 people have been killed in fighting between gunmen from Hamas and Fatah in the past month in the Gaza Strip.
The results of the survey, which polled 1,270 adults between June 15 and 18, are likely to encourage moderation by both sides, Shikaki said, with Abbas edging away from a referendum showdown and Hamas cautiously supporting a popular document.
“We might finally be seeing the debate giving way to the more moderate wing of Hamas,” said Shikaki. He said that acceptance of the document would mean Hamas would implicitly acknowledge Israel’s existence and the supremacy of the umbrella Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the need to limit attacks against the Jewish state.
If Hamas and Fatah end up agreeing on the prisoners’ document, it is possible that a new government of national unity could be formed in the months ahead, political observers say.
According to Shikaki’s survey, 85 percent of Palestinians would support the establishment of such a government.
The survey also showed no gap in the level of support for Hamas and Fatah five months after Hamas heavily defeated Fatah in parliamentary elections. If elections were held today, both factions would receive 39 percent of the vote, the poll showed. Three months ago, the gap stood at eight points, with Hamas garnering 47 percent support and Fatah 39 percent.
Meanwhile, the European Union’s external relations commissioner said that unilateral Israeli steps could not bring Middle East peace but nevertheless welcomed plans to remove settlements as “courageous.”
Benita Ferrero-Waldner was speaking in Jerusalem at a joint news conference with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni after talks presenting a $126-million EU aid package for the Palestinians that will bypass the Hamas-led government.
“Unilateral steps cannot bring peace,” she said. Yet when asked about the dismantling of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which has been occupied by Israel for 39 years, she called such intentions “courageous steps.”
In an interview with Reuters, she said it would not be easy to set up a system of allowances for the neediest Palestinians and it was unclear when the funds would start being paid out. “We will need some time. It is not that easy. It is a complex task. I cannot give you a time frame,” she said.
Yesterday, the Hamas-led Palestinian government distributed emergency payments of $300 to thousands of desperate civil servants who have not received salaries in nearly four months.
But in a sign of the government’s continuing troubles, the money was distributed through special postal accounts after local banks, fearful of violating international anti-terror laws, refused to handle the cash brought into the territories through border checkpoints.
