AMMAN, 13 October 2006 — A Jordanian poll released yesterday shows that 84 percent of Lebanese believe that the Lebanon war this summer was a premeditated attempt by the United States and Israel to impose a new Middle East order. But respondents to the survey differ along religious lines over who won the conflict.
The study, conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan, showed that a majority of those polled thought the war was initiated by Israel and the United States in an effort to reshape the region into a “new Middle East”, while 13 per cent of respondents disagreed.
The survey revealed that Lebanon’s numerous religious sects diverge over who emerged triumphant. Seventy percent of Shiites, the religious group most affected by the violence, said Hezbollah fighters came out as winner, while only 36 percent of Sunnis and 19 percent of Christians believed Hezbollah won.
Among the Druze, a religious community overwhelmingly living in the Chouf Mountains, 82 percent believed Lebanon was the biggest loser. The Christians follow closely behind at 73 percent. “The Druze are basically a united bloc. They blame the Syrians and Iranians for the war,” said Mohammad Masri, a fellow at the CSS, which usually conducts surveys in the regions when major events happen.
“The Shiites also presented a unified opinion, but they instead sided with Hezbollah and blame an American-Israeli blueprint of a new Middle East for starting the conflict,” he added. Differences across religious lines were also highlighted over Hezbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers on July 12, one of the reasons often cited for sparking the six-week war.
The majority of Shiite respondents agreed that Hezbollah’s capture of the soldiers was justified, while the majority of Druze disagreed. Stuck in the middle of these two groups were the Christians and Sunnis, who appear more divided about their opinions of the conflict. “There tend to be multiple poles of opinions among these two groups,” Masri said, referring to internal disputes between rival political figures in each of the two religious blocs.
Taken as a whole, half of all respondents believed that Lebanon came out as the biggest loser and 37 percent say Israel emerged defeated. But, surprisingly, 78 percent believe that the war would have happened whether Hezbollah captured the Israeli soldiers or not. The poll sample of 1,200 Lebanese included Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze. The margin of error was 2-3 percent, Masri said.
