WASHINGTON, 9 November 2006 — The Democrats’ triumphant return to power in the House of Representatives could spell trouble for US President George W. Bush’s campaign to dismantle global trade barriers. But after Tuesday’s election, which has left the Senate on a knife-edge, analysts said legislative gridlock and a focus on the 2008 presidential race would limit the influence of Democratic isolationists.

“The election means that the president’s trade agenda has come to a screeching halt,” Daniel Griswold, director of trade policy studies at the free-market Cato Institute, told AFP. But he added: “Divided government will mean no bold trade liberalization, but no bold protectionism either. We’re looking at two years of stalemate in US trade policy.”

Moody’s Investors Service economist John Lonski said wrenching job losses brought about by globalization had been felt in the mid-term US election. “My sense is that a lot of seats the Republicans have lost, in places like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio, were in a large part the consequence of a persistent exit of manufacturing activity to cheaper sites in China,” he said. And with the World Trade Organization’s “Doha Round” on life support, the chances of the United States unilaterally renouncing its farm subsidies appear more remote than ever.

After the vote, the clock is now ticking before Bush loses his “Trade Promotion Authority” at midnight on June 30. Under TPA, the administration can fast-track trade pacts through Congress without amendment.

US Trade Representative Susan Schwab said last month that whatever the election’s outcome, there would remain a “critical mass” of support for free trade among both Democrats and Republicans. But at the very least, the Democrats can be expected to push for greater protections on the environment and labor rights in any US trade deals.

In Ohio, Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown trounced incumbent Senator Mike DeWine after campaigning fiercely against “job-killing” trade pacts that he argued had cost the state millions of manufacturing jobs. However, the Democrats are also the party of former President Bill Clinton, whose passionate advocacy of open economies resulted in the North American Free Trade Agreement.