LONDON, 17 November 2006 — US President George W. Bush favors one “last big push” in Iraq, and could send in up to 20,000 extra troops to try to finally quell the spiraling violence there, a report said yesterday.

The Guardian newspaper, citing sources familiar with the US administration’s deliberations, said an international conference involving Iraq’s neighbors could also be called under strategy gaining ground in Washington.

The report said that Bush’s views are having a “decisive impact” on the Iraq Study Group, the panel of experts led by Bush ally and former secretary of state James Baker to consider possible changes of strategy in Iraq. Although the panel’s work is not complete, its recommendations are expected to be built around a four-point “victory strategy” developed by Pentagon officials advising the group, it said.

The proposed strategy is being circulated in draft form and has been discussed in closed-door sessions with Baker and Vice President Dick Cheney, a hawk on Iraq.

Point one would involve an increase, rather than a decrease, in troop numbers, possibly by as many as 20,000 soldiers, in particular to bolster security around Baghdad.

The second point would call for an international conference including Iraq’s neighbors, to bolster regional cooperation with a view to Iraq’s international rehabilitation.

Point three would focus on reviving national reconciliation between ethnic groups within Iraq, while the fourth key recommendation would be for more US funds to help Iraq bolster its own security forces, among other activities.

The paper, which has strong links with Prime Minister Tony Blair, a key Bush ally, said that Bush is refusing to give ground despite growing calls for a rethink involving a possible withdrawal of troops next year.

It cited a former senior US official as saying that Bush is not facing up to the reality in Iraq, where the death toll continues to mount over three years after the 2003 US-led invasion.

“He is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is. But he knows he’s got less than a year, maybe six months, to make it work. If it fails, I expect the withdrawal process to begin next fall.”

Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda yesterday denied a claim by Iraq’s Interior Ministry spokesman that Iraqi and US troops had arrested one of the group’s senior operatives, Abdullah Juburi. In a statement on the Internet, a spokesman for the self-styled Islamic State in Iraq said the reported arrest “is without any foundation. It is a new lie in the series of lies from the crusader occupier. All the warriors of the state are fighting the enemies on the battlefield.”