‘Saudi Arabia, UAE Economies to Boom’

DUBAI, 30 November 2006 — Contrary to popular belief, India rather than China would become the economic powerhouse over the next 50 years and places such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman would continue to boom, says Internationally respected demographic forecaster, Harry S. Dent.

“The Middle East and India are destined to become global economic powerhouses as populations steady or decline in Western Europe, the United States and other developed areas,” he said while addressing the Dubai Business Forum at the Dubai International Convention Center yesterday. “The UAE and other GCC countries could expect a continuing wave of spending for many years to come,” he added. He said China’s spending wave would peak by 2015 and continue to slow until 2055 when it would actually begin to contract. By comparison India and Saudi Arabia would continue to grow before peaking around 2065. The UAE would continue to boom until 2025 as long as immigration continued, but the economy would then level out before booming again until 2065, he said.

The UAE economy could expect to boom until around 2025 despite oil prices peaking by 2010 at between $100 and $115 a barrel before falling to as low $10 or $11 a barrel. However, he said, while such a dramatic drop was possible he predicted the oil price would more likely stabilize at around $50.

By comparison Qatar’s spending wave would continue until 2025 before declining, picking up slightly around 2060 and then continuing to fall. Oman would rise steadily until well after 2060.

Bahrain’s spending cycle would reach a peak around 2015, drop sharply until around 2030 and then pick up again to peak around 2045. Dent, who has successfully predicted several major economic events by studying the aging of populations, said the current economic bubble being experienced in many developed countries would come to an end around 2010 as the baby boomer generations in the US and Europe reached retirement age.

Meanwhile, in a debate, three of the region’s leading business executives commented that the governments in the region need to do more to educate young people and protect local talent.

Speaking during the CNN CEO debate yesterday, Aramex International CEO Fadi Ghandour, GroupMed CEO Mohammad Hariri, and the chief executive of DMI, Khalid Janahi, said there was a major deficit in leadership in both government and the private sector in the region.

Governments need to do more to educate young people and encourage talent to the region and to stay in the region.

Organizers said in a statement that more than 1,800 delegates including royalty, former heads of state, government ministers and many of the region’s most senior decision makers are attending the forum.