When President Bush repeated the mantra in his State of the Union address in January, for the second year running, that the US needs to lessen its reliance on the Middle Eastern oil, not everyone took him seriously then. Many argued it may not be practically possible.

But the Bush Administration appears serious in some ways at least.

It is becoming apparent the US was striving hard to diversify its crude resources. Many in the US have been critical of Washington, and indeed rightly so, for not putting in enough resources to encourage the use and development of alternative fuels.

 There seems a strategic direction in the thinking process in Washington on the issue. Obsessed with the idea of diversifying its crude supply base, as much as practically possible in the given circumstances, the US administration is definitely making headway.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Nigeria overtook Saudi Arabia in March 2006, as far as crude exports to US were concerned. According to the preliminary import statistics, Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer and the world’s eighth largest, leaped from being the fifth top crude exporter to the US in February to third in March, pushing Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter into the fourth place. Riyadh supplied the US market with an average 1.231 million b/d of crude in March, as compared to 1.29 million b/d from Nigeria. History was indeed being made.

It is now increasingly clear that when it comes to supplying the United States with oil, Africa is slowly but surely getting ahead of the Middle East. Based on some recent reports, African crude supplies surged ahead of exports from the Middle East in 2006, interestingly for the first time in 21 years.

Crude destined to the US from Africa averaged 2.23 million barrels a day in 2006 — the highest since 1979 and a 4.8 percent jump from 2005. The 22 percent share — the biggest in 25 years — compares with 21 percent in 2005 and even less than 13 percent in 2002.

Besides Nigeria, the US is also keeping a close eye on other oil-rich African states too, so as to meet and secure its energy needs. US crude imports from Angola surged a whooping 41 percent in December last year from a year earlier, capping a 12.5 percent full-year gain to a record average of 513,000 barrels a day.

US crude imports from Algeria also jumped 57 percent to 357,000 barrels a day in 2006, the highest volume since 1980. For the second straight year, crude imports from Chad also rose by nearly 30 percent, reaching a high of 95,000 barrels a day in 2006.

On the other hand, the volume of US crude imports from the Middle East, at 2.22 million barrels a day last year, though dipped just 20,000 barrels a day on the year but marked the third straight annual decline. The flow of Middle East crude into the United States was at the lowest level in 2006 since 1998, and the 22 percent share was the slimmest since 1997.

As recently as 2001, US imports from the Middle East were significantly ahead of African supplies by more than 10 percent, or 1.3 million barrels a day. But apparently the events of 911 impacted the US psyche heavily.

Ever since then, there seems to be concerted effort on the part of the US to look for other crude sources.

In view of the emphasis on diversification of sources in the US, many now believe that in the years to come, crude supplies to the US from the African continent would continue to grow — widening in the process the lead over the Middle Eastern supplies.

The emerging scenario also underlines the importance of Africa, strategically, politically and economically to the US. And it is becoming evident in the horn of Africa today.  

The producers in the Gulf are in the meantime, tapping new, emerging markets for their major export commodity — oil. Strong demand growth in Asia is pulling the Gulf crude eastward, and the new supply from Africa it seems is staying in the Atlantic Basin. 

Major producers including Saudi Arabia are thus targeting more volumes at China and other emerging Asian economies. Saudi Arabia has also forged relations with major Asian consumers such as China and South Korea by forming joint ventures to sell petroleum products. An Asian grid may not be far off, as far as oil business is concerned, one strongly feels now. 

The scenario is changing. Altogether new equations are being developed. The new emerging realities have many dimensions.

Energy has been playing a very significant role in forging alliances all over the globe. It seems, in the years to come, new alliances would come into being and some older ones could face the stress and strains of times.