IRAQI Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki was in Ankara yesterday trying to assure the Turkish authorities that Iraq does not in any way support Kurdish militants. The militants have been launching attacks across the border and then retreating to safe havens in the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous area. But Turkey, which has 140,000 troops stationed on the frontier and has hinted it may launch an invasion to take out the militants if Iraq does not deal with them first, is not going to feel reassured by the visit. It sees Maliki’s government as one in dire straits and facing collapse. Maliki is hardly likely to want to antagonize Iraqi Kurds by going for the militants; in fact, the Iraqi Kurds sympathize with them and, if the prime minister orders strikes, will turn against him.
Monday’s decision to boycott Cabinet meetings by five Iraqi government ministers loyal to former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi raises the most serious questions so far about Maliki’s ability to govern. His support base is now down to a section of the Shiite community — plus the Kurds. Five ministers allied to radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr walked out earlier this year; the six from the Iraqi Accordance Front, the main Sunni bloc in Parliament, resigned last week accusing the government of “arrogance.” This latest boycott leaves Iraq now without any Sunnis in the Cabinet. In no way can the Cabinet be seen as united, let alone representative of the country as a whole. Maliki certainly cannot afford to alienate the Kurds. Without them, he would lose all claim to govern.
He does, however, have a limited window of opportunity to bolster his position — till the beginning of September when the Iraqi Parliament reconvenes. Otherwise, he is likely to lose a vote of no-confidence. The five ministers from Allawi’s secular Iraqiya coalition clearly think there can be compromise. They would have resigned if they thought otherwise. But three weeks is not a long time to change what has become a deeply entrenched government policy of Shiite favoritism and it will take a strong backbone to stand up to those in the party who want to go on punishing and persecuting the Sunnis.
Maliki has to take on board the five ministers’ demand for an end to discrimination against Sunnis and, specifically, that the re-employment of former Baath Party members in government jobs be speeded up and more be done to help displaced Iraqis return home. What he cannot do, as he tried to with the Accordance Front last month, is accuse them of blackmail. It is not credible and would only backfire as it did with the Accordance Front ministers. These five are not militants; they do not sympathize with the insurgents. They are the most moderate of Iraqi politicians. If they say something is rotten at the heart of Iraqi government, then we should listen carefully to them. That is something Washington will have to take on board. It is busy trying to lobby support for Maliki’s government but it is difficult to give that support when moderate Iraqis are withdrawing it.
