Last week Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was emphatic that there were two red lines over which Russia will not budge — its opposition to the planned US missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic and to any decision on Kosovo not approved by Serbia. In reality these were empty words. As far as the missiles are concerned, there is absolutely nothing short of threatening war that Moscow can do if the Americans, Poles and Czechs are agreed on the project — and for the moment they are. As for Kosovo, the Americans again, and the Europeans, are in the driving seat. If Kosovo declares independence and they recognize it (as they seem prepared to do), that will be the end of it. Russia will not have the chance to use its UN veto because the matter will have gone beyond requiring UN approval. Moscow will be left with red lines that appear all too distinctly like a mirage.
But no one should take that to conclude that Russia is a paper tiger. Impotence in Kosovo or on the missile issue does not translate into impotence elsewhere.
President Vladimir Putin has just been in Indonesia prior to going on to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Australia where he is to meet with US President George W. Bush. He then returns home via the UAE. The tour has serious political importance not simply because all three places are firsts for the Russian president. What makes it so important is that Putin dreams of making Russia a power in the Far East and the Pacific. As the press in Moscow put it a few days ago, he wants to “lay the foundations of (Far Eastern) policy for his successor” — though whether there will be a successor is a moot point: The presidential election is only six months away and there is no serious candidate waiting in the wings; moreover, there is anecdotal evidence that Putin wants to change the constitution to allow him another term as president.
Evidence of Far Eastern hopes can be seen in the scale and composition of the delegation accompanying him to Jakarta — it comprised over 100 businessmen — and the $1.35 billion arms sales to the Indonesians, paid for not by Indonesia but by a Russian loan that may never need to be repaid. It can also be seen in other events and announcements over the past few days: a joint Russian-Chinese counterterrorism military exercise; Putin visiting a submarine base on the Kamchatka Peninsula which is being revitalized after years of decay; a visit by the Russian Pacific fleet to South Korea; a new Chinese language institute opening in Moscow.
Russia is trying to reassert its position as a global superpower — and thanks to the high energy prices, it can do it. It is the world’s largest exporter of gas and the second largest of oil. It is doing what the US has done for so long and China is now doing — buying friends and influence. It would be naive to imagine it is not going to succeed.
