With unmistakable signs of the failure of the American adventure in Iraq, President Bush and his administration has suggested holding a conference in autumn for pushing the peace process between the Arabs and Israel. Washington says that it will guarantee for the success of the conference.
But the American assurances were not convincing enough to the two countries who have identified the factors guaranteeing the success of any initiative for a peace settlement in the Middle East.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal told a press conference in Jeddah on Sept. 12 that he doubted whether the Kingdom would attend the conference if it did not address “key issues” such Israel’s borders, Jerusalem and other basic issues set forth in clear terms in the Arab peace initiative.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak does not see any use in the meeting as long as the country calling for it, the United States, did not present an agenda for the conference.
Ahmed Abul Gheit, the Egyptian foreign minister, at a joint press conference held with his French counterpart, said: We have so far not seen any major effort by the American administration to build a foundation for peace.
Egypt, he said, does not have sufficient information about the ongoing talks between the Palestinian and Israeli sides. There have been meetings and consultations between the two sides but without any significant progress.
The too frank comments by Egyptian and Saudi officials pushed the American administration to declare that the conference has a tangible and specific target, and that they will strive for achieving it.
The fact is the United States only announced the holding of the conference without saying about who will participate and the nature and purpose of the whole exercise.
We have a strange situation here. The organizer does not say anything about the initiative, while the other parties do not find answers to their questions, creating a state of deliberate ambiguity. Israel on its part is exploiting this ambiguity to request the cancellation or postponement of the conference, in an attempt to ward of any pressure on it to make even minor concessions.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has begun a tour of the region to canvass support for the November conference, hoping that it would achieve something for an administration drowning in the Iraqi quagmire.
I don’t expect the conference to produce anything positive. The reasons are many, but the most important are:
• Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is weak politically and the same is true of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Surrounded by opponents, they will be unable to take any bold initiative.
• Israel needs security and regional acceptance and this will be possible only if it embraces the Arab peace initiative. This Israel can’t do for it goes against its expansionist policies and ambitions in the region.
• Disunity among Palestinians.
• There are fears of growing Iranian support to the armed Palestinian factions. So Americans and Israelis may insist on the need to confront Iran in one form or another.
The following are the minimum conditions for the success of the conference and the achievement of peace:
• A halt to all settlement activities.
• Israel should go back to the pre-1967 borders.
• The inclusion of some West Bank settlements in Israel in return for Palestinians receiving equal amounts of Israeli land.
• Division of the Holy City of Jerusalem with Israel and Palestinians in control of their respective sacred places.
• The 1948 refugees to be welcomed into the Palestinian state with generous assistance and compensation from Israel.
In any peace settlement the concessions will have to come from the strong to the weak and that means from Israel to the Palestinians. Israel is stronger than all the Arab countries combined.
Who will attend the conference and with what motives? On the side of right and justice or to side with Israel to placate the American administration struggling to get out of the swamp of Iraq?
Wait and see. November is not that far.
