Why hasn’t George Bush invaded Myanmar? The country is rich enough in natural resources to merit his attention — both oil and gas, key words to attract a Texan mind, are there. There is also a vile, unpopular military regime — just perfect for justifying the invasion of another country. And to top it all, the people are clamoring for democracy, protests are being brutally suppressed and there is a beautiful Nobel laureate recognized as a legitimate and respected leader in waiting. So why is Dubya holding back from going in all guns blazing? Has he suddenly been converted to the power of diplomacy in solving international conflicts?

Of course this is not an international conflict, it is a domestic conflict and as such the solution should come from the people of Myanmar and not be dictated from elsewhere. And I do not for the record wish to see any country invade Myanmar, least of all the US or any “coalition of the willing” or any other such force for destruction in the guise of democracy.

But the people of Myanmar have spoken clearly. No one can doubt that ordinary citizens of Myanmar would like a change of government. In fact it’s generally a safe bet that people prefer democracy to military rule, freedom to repression and economic growth to penury. But in this case we have a vote, a landslide victory in 1990 for the National League for Democracy, the party led by Aung San Suu Kyi. But she is not running the country, a bunch of hard-line generals are, whilst Ms. Suu Kyi is under house arrest. The Nobel Peace laureate has been under arrest for over a decade, she remains calm and serene, and a symbol of peace in the midst of suffering and brutal repression.

The monks too stand for peace. There are hundreds of thousands of them in Myanmar, a saffron army calling for change whose only weapon is prayer. The army may have hesitated to quell these protests at first, letting the monks take to the streets and protest peacefully day after day in growing numbers, but no more. Monasteries were attacked in overnight raids, ransacked even, with monks beaten and shot with rubber bullets in their sleep. It is sacrilege of course, regardless of your religious beliefs. Places of worship should not be sullied with blood and aggression.

Will this be a repeat of that dreadful day in August 1988? On 8/8/88 a popular uprising was quashed by the military. More than 3,000 people were gunned down on the streets. No, signs are that the military junta is exercising some restraint just as it has been pressured to do by their powerful neighbors.

In this case the key players are not the US and Europe for all their heady rhetoric at the UN, but China and India, and to some extent Russia. China is Myanmar’s leading trading partner and the only country with the power to influence Myanmar’s leadership. Will they intervene? Publicly and officially, no, but indirectly, yes, up to a point. The Chinese don’t care who runs Myanmar, they are happy to do business with the military leadership, but what they want is a peaceful neighbor, particularly with the Beijing Olympics coming up next year.

There are some encouraging signals that the military leadership may be open to negotiation. The UN’s special envoy to Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, is on his way to Myanmar. Japan may send in its deputy foreign minister this weekend.

But for the moment it is looking bleak. The most enduring image is that of Kenji Nagai, the Japanese journalist shot dead in Yangon as he tried to film the protests. He lies on the ground still holding his camera up in the air, filming the soldier pointing a gun at him, blood already seeping through his shirt where he has been shot on his chest. A moment later he is seen lying dead on the ground.

It is hard to get an accurate picture of the situation in Myanmar, but it is certain that hundreds of people are being detained and scores have been killed. What started off as peaceful demonstrations sparked off by a massive hike in the cost of living will surely turn into a bloodbath unless something is done. John Sawers, Britain’s ambassador to the UN, has warned Myanmar’s generals that the “the age of impunity is dead”. If only that were true.