President George Bush has never shown much interest in the Middle East peace process — such as it has been — even though pressed to do so by his friend and admirer former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and countless other national leaders. Before being elected for the first time to the White House, George Bush criticized the amount of time and energy President Bill Clinton had devoted to it, and to no avail, and made it clear he would not be going down the same route.
Colin Powell spent little time on it while secretary of state for the simple reason he would not have had the support of his president if he had. He was also only too aware that Vice President Dick Cheney, and the highly influential neoconservatives that surrounded the vice president, were fully signed up to the Israeli agenda, and backing Israel all the way was a basic tenet of their politics. We should have no doubt that it still is.
For all her obvious talents, her intelligence, her charm, her powers of administration, Condoleezza Rice’s track record while working in the White House, before moving to the State Department, was unimpressive. Today, and with a vice president whose political position has weakened, she is sensibly trying to strike out on her own. I suspect she is desperate to shore up America’s standing in the Middle East, which is in danger of collapsing like a torn wet tent.
She will be briefed every day on the failure of Iraq’s elected politicians in Baghdad to get their act together, and fearful that Iraq could become fragmented.
Her senior diplomats will have interesting suggestions as to what that would mean for Iraq’s neighbors. Containing Iran and preventing that country from joining the nuclear club with Israel is the top priority, while she sits behind her big desk as secretary of state. The growing influence of Hezbollah, the challenge presented by the leader of Hamas in Gaza and the behavior of Syria in Lebanon will be giving her much food for thought.
Condoleezza Rice has just been visiting Israel and the West Bank searching for common ground and preparing to give a lead to the Quartet (the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia). The Americans insist it is the secretary of state and not Tony Blair, the leading international envoy in the Middle East since July, who is responsible for bringing the Palestinians and Israelis together.
It is her intention to be the chairman of a peace conference in the United States in either November or December.
I can see it slipping into the New Year. The guest list has yet to be confirmed; Saudi Arabia who has been to the fore within the Arab League on this issue will be a key guest. It is thought Syria will be included. The secretary of state believes all those who support the concept of a Palestinian state, recognize Israel — in one way or another — and eschew violence should be invited.
President Bush leaves the White House in January 2009 so there will be a year in which to try to reach some kind of agreement.
The mistake President Clinton made when chairing meetings between Palestinians and Israelis was to find out from the Israeli side what could be acceptable and then seek to pressure and persuade the Palestinians to sign up to it. Will Condoleezza Rice avoid making the same mistake? There is a real problem in having as a chairman the official representative of a primary backer of one side in the dispute.
The problem for international statesmen is that the United States in the world’s only hyperpower and could wreck any agreement that it does not agree with.
On the positive side, it is the only country out of 192 at the United Nations capable of exerting pressure on Israel’s politicians — should it be prepared to do so.
The elderly President Mahmoud Abbas from secular Fatah, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel who faces new sleaze charges, have had several rounds of talks since Fatah fled Gaza. I am sure President Abbas fears that if he does not get major concessions out of Ehud Olmert the plight of the Palestinians will be in free fall.
Both the European Union and the United States classify Hamas as a terrorist organization and Tony Blair has not been authorized to talk to the leadership of Hamas.
But without Hamas on board — or clinging to the side of the boat — I cannot see how diplomatic progress is going to be made. Meanwhile its futile rocket attacks into Israel bring further troubles on its head.
My conclusion is that Condoleezza’s conference is a basically good idea — if rather late in the day — and should be fully backed by the international community.
