WASHINGTON, 3 January 2008 — It just may be a happy New Year for Barack Obama: The Illinois senator is leading his closest rival Hillary Clinton in a new poll with just one day to go before the critical Iowa caucuses.
In the final Des Moines (Iowa) Register poll before tonight’s nominating contests, Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers. Sen. Hillary of New York, meanwhile, pulled 25 percent while former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards garnered 24 percent.
Obama, Hillary, and Edwards have battled for the top Democratic spot for months in Iowa, which today kicks off the state-by-state battle to choose Republican and Democratic candidates for the November presidential election.
Judging from recent polls, Iowa has basically been a three-way race among Hillary, Obama and Edwards in the run-up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee have traded places in the lead on the Republican side.
Forty percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers identified themselves as independents, the poll said, double the percentage from 2004, and 60 percent said they would be attending a caucus for the first time. Both groups preferred Obama.
Obama has courted independents as well as Republicans in his stump speeches, casting his appeal across party lines as a key to his electablility in November. Observers say that if Obama can produce the large independent turnout the poll anticipates, he will have transformed at least these Iowa caucuses from a conclave for party regulars to something more like a typical primary, similar to New Hampshire’s on Jan. 8.
Obama made small gains among independents and solidified his strength among younger voters. Hillary, former first lady, maintained her strong lead among older voters.
Obama got a boost yesterday when Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, a long-shot antiwar candidate for the Democratic nomination, urged his Iowa supporters their second choice on caucus night — should his own candidacy not receive the required 15 percent support — to compete in the caucus. On the Republican side, Huckabee is leading Romney in the new poll. Huckabee had 32 percent of likely caucus-goers while Romney is winning 26 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain came in third with 13 percent. Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney have all used illegal immigration to try to prove to voters that they are the toughest and most conservative candidates in the field.
They have used this issue with brutal consistency in an attempt to marginalize McCain, whose support for legislation to clamp down on border security while offering illegal immigrants a path to citizenship helped cost him his front-runner status.
Less than a year after Bush resumed his push to offer the nation’s 12 million illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, most of his would-be GOP successor could hot have moved further from his platforms.
