WASHINGTON, 11 March 2008 — As Democrats remain locked over who will win their party’s nomination for president, four main factors could decide who emerges the leader in the race. The factors that could affect the outcome of the race are: Who has the most money; who leads in delegate numbers; how to resolve the fate over Michigan and Florida delegates; and how badly will negative campaign ads affect the campaigns?
Both the nominees, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, prepared yesterday for their next skirmish in Mississippi as Democrats viewed with trepidation the direction of the presidential nomination war. Obama, bidding to be the first African-American president, is set to win most of the Magnolia State’s 33 delegates today after defeating the former first lady by a landslide in Wyoming on Saturday.
Recent polls give the Illinois senator anything from a six- to 24-point edge in Mississippi, where more than half of Democratic voters are black. While Obama addressed supporters at two campaign stops in Mississippi yesterday, Clinton headed to the much bigger battleground of Pennsylvania, a blue-collar state whose 158 delegates will be up for grabs on April 22.
Clinton campaigned in Mississippi at the end of last week and, like Obama, promised to help rebuild communities obliterated by Hurricane Katrina in mid-2005.
Former President Bill Clinton used his own weekend stop in Mississippi to argue that a presidential ticket headed by his wife, with Obama in the No. 2 slot, would be an “almost unstoppable force.”
Obama has ridiculed the idea of being Hillary’s running mate this fall. Speaking in Mississippi, the Illinois senator said voters should not think they can get both candidates on the ticket by nominating Clinton as president and assuming he will accept the vice presidential spot.
Obama told a midday crowd, “You have to make a choice in this election.” He, however, did not absolutely close the door to a second spot on the ticket, but it was his most pointed signal that he is not interested.
Obama noted that he has won more states, votes and delegates than Clinton so far, and he says he thinks he can win the nomination.
But talk of a “dream ticket” has intensified. Sen. John Kerry, who is backing Obama, complained that Clinton’s campaign had ridiculed Obama’s capacity to take on Republican John McCain for the post of commander-in-chief.
“On the other hand, they’re saying maybe he ought to be vice president. You can’t have the argument both ways,” he told CBS on Sunday.
“That’s exactly the politics that Barack Obama is running to change.”
Former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota too mocked the idea. “It may be the first time in history that the person who is running No. 2 would offer the person running No. 1 the No. 2 position,” Daschle said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
With 370 delegates gained from last Tuesday’s primaries in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, Clinton earned a net gain of six delegates over Obama. In the Wyoming caucus, Obama won 61 percent (5,378 votes), against Clinton’s 38 percent, or 3,312 votes.
In the overall race for the Democratic nomination, Obama currently leads with 1,578 delegates to Clinton’s 1,468. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination at the party’s convention in late August in Denver.
The rivals were neck-and-neck in a national poll that Newsweek magazine carried out just after last week’s primaries. Obama had 45 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
The wildest card in this race to the presidency is the 795 superdelegates. To date, Clinton has about 35-superdelegate edge, with 242 to Obama’s 207. Mix together the pledged delegates and superdelegates, and less than 1,000 delegates remaining to be dealt out among the two, the race is likely to go down the wire.
One calculation that could help give Clinton the edge is adding the big Florida and Michigan delegations. The Democratic Party stripped both states of their convention votes for holding January primaries earlier than party rules permit.
Clinton, who won both states, wants them seated. Problem is — Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballots. Obama’s camp doesn’t want these states to be counted, as they would likely both go to Clinton.
— With input from agencies
