A GREEN city is entirely possible, will almost certainly pay for itself in savings on current systems management and can be achieved now. Such was the message that came across loud and clear at the Siemens Media Summit on sustainable technology held in London in late June. A report produced by McKinsey and Company evaluated London's environmental footprint and set out ways of achieving substantial savings in energy and of reducing the capital's contribution to global warming. The report is the first comprehensive analysis of costs and potentials of greenhouse gas abatement technologies in a city.
The report suggests that very significant reductions could be made using existing technology and that about two thirds of the investment in putting that technology in place would be recouped from savings. The investment, says the report, is not huge; an incremental total investment of about 41 billion euros to 2025 - less than one percent annually of London's total economic output - would result in a reduction of 44 percent in greenhouse gases on 1990's output. The level of one percent of GDP is in line with the findings of the Stern Report (by Lord Stern of Brentford for the UK Treasury in 2006) which says that 251,084 billion euros, or 1 percent of global GDP, must be spent every year to get carbon dioxide levels to "stabilize" at 550ppm. This figure will rise as world GDP increases, and could be three to four times as large by 2050.
The city, it seems, is about to take up the challenge. Recently elected Mayor of London Boris Johnson said in a written address to delegates that one of his manifesto promises was to establish London as one of the world's greenest cities with sustainability at the core of its decision-making. "As cities contribute over three quarters of the emissions that are causing climate change, I passionately believe that cities have a civic and moral responsibility to take action and become less wasteful in order to protect the quality of life for our citizens now and in the future," he wrote.
This is no pipe-dream. The technology to reduce carbon emissions exists and management systems to reduce them further are well-known. Carbon and greenhouse gas reduction is a matter of the will to implement existing management and technical systems rather than the paucity of technology to provide answers.
Peter Löscher, president and CEO of Siemens AG and sponsor of the summit, supported the point. He noted that Siemens alone, with products installed in the few years running up to 2007 and that are currently still in use, have reduced CO2 emissions by 114 million metric tons a year. To put this statistic in context, that is more than the emissions of Saudi Arabia (84 million tons), Australia (89 million tons), Spain (90 million tons), France (101.9 million tons) or Indonesia (103 million tons).
For the first time in human history, more than half the world's population lives in urban conurbations. Current demographics suggest that this will rise to at least 60 percent by 2025. About 80 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions emanate from urban areas. It makes sense, opined Löscher, to address the structure, transport, energy use and waste systems of cities as the starting point in the global drive to reduce their contribution to global warming.
"The [McKinsey] report shows that the adoption of many technologies for reducing greenhouse gases also makes good economic sense," Löscher said. "Almost 70 percent of the potential abatement (of gases) could be achieved with the help of technologies that would pay for themselves, largely by reducing costs."
The McKinsey report found that by adopting greener technologies it would be able to reach its Kyoto target (-12 percent by 2012), the EU target (-20 percent by 2020), and the UK government target of -30 percent by 2030. Even the very ambitious 60 percent reduction by 2025 set by the city could be within reach from a combination of regulatory and lifestyle changes. All this, thought Löscher, could be achieved with today's technologies without a massive shift in citizens' lifestyles.
Of the emissions generated by London - and the same goes for many cities - two thirds of the CO2 comes from buildings. An overall investment of about 20 billion euros would be necessary to reduce their CO2 emissions by 10 mega tons (Mt) by 2025. However, some 90 percent of these investments pay off for those making the investment decisions, according to Löscher. Energy efficient lighting and improved building insulation are the two areas where savings would be greatest, taking the city's CO2 output down by almost five Mt by 2025.
A further three Mt could be saved in the same period by reducing the emissions from transport, public and private. At the Siemens Summit, delegates were driven across London in one of the new hybrid buses, powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Transport for London (TfL) has signed up for the supply of 10 hydrogen-powered buses for delivery to TfL by 2010. All 10 of the hydrogen-powered buses will be built with Siemens hybrid drive system technology, five of which will be hydrogen hybrid fuel cell buses and the other five will have hydrogen hybrid internal combustion engines. Seventy of the zero emission buses will be in operation by 2010 and all new buses that replace the ageing fleet will be hydrogen powered.
Apart from direct savings, reductions in CO2 emissions can be made with running repairs and pricing. London loses about 30 percent of its processed water through leaks in the 4,800 kilometer delivery system. Thus every liter saved by consumers results in one and a half less being processed which results in a saving of about 65 million cubic meters of water every year and the consequent reduction in production and pumping emissions.
Legislation and regulation can be effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions - however, the report indicates nearly 75 percent of technical changes are controlled by consumers, individual or business. Löscher thinks that city authorities need to address not just the direct reduction of CO2 levels but how they can promote even greater use of technology by consumers.
"This could be achieved through changes in regulation, taxes, subsidies, access to capital and provision of reliable information," he said. Campaigning to raise public awareness and to encourage consumers to make choices that were environmentally sound is necessary.
London has been around since Roman times; a well established conurbation, everything to do with technical and physical change to address the modern challenges of climate change has to be retro-fitted. Saudi Arabia has a chance to lead the world by utilizing those accessible, extant and frequently self-financing technologies and incorporating them in the design of the Kingdom's new economic and knowledge cities from the ground up, rather than retro-fitting with its resultant disruption. It would send a powerful message to the world from the world's biggest producer of the very hydrocarbons that cause climate change saying; "Enough. We understand the problem. Like us, change before it is too late."