Israel is to have fresh elections next spring. This follows Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni’s inability to form a new coalition government. Of course there was nothing surprising in Kadima party leader’s announcement yesterday. Early elections had appeared likely since Friday, when the ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced it would not join a Livni-led government. The decision may put a year’s worth of peace talks in limbo for months. And nobody knows whether the party or parties that will come to power after the elections will be as committed to peace negotiations as the current one.
Shas declined Livni’s offer because she refused to pledge that the future status of Jerusalem would not be on the agenda in negotiations with the Palestinians. As is known to all, a peace treaty without East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state would be impossible.
Though Livni needed the ultra-Orthodox party to secure a solid majority in the 120-seat Parliament, reaching an agreement with Shas is not the same thing as reaching a peace deal with Palestinians. A heterogeneous Livni government would not have been able to pursue meaningful peace talks. Livni is the chief Israeli negotiator with the Palestinians and is supposedly committed to continuing peace negotiations.
The failure to form a coalition may have freed Livni from spending time and energy trying to appease an extremist partner. But there are fears that the next elections would be won by right-wing parties.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s possible victory would put a definite end to any search for peace. Netanyahu of the Likud party refuses to discuss any final-status issues with the Palestinians, such as Jerusalem, the refugees and borders. He also strongly rejects the idea of a state for Palestinians. The political formulation Netanyahu sees as appropriate for dealing with the Palestinians is self-autonomy in association with Jordan. Netanyahu has not made any secret of his enthusiasm for the idea of Jordan assuming administrative authority over Palestinian residential areas in the West Bank while Israel continues to control more than 70 percent of the West Bank.
Livni’s one percent victory over Shaul Mofaz for leadership of the Kadima party showed she does not have a strong mandate to govern Israel. The next election will be close, one in which Livni is expected to face two candidates, both former prime ministers: Ehud Barak of Labor, and Netanyahu, who looks like gaining the most seats in a general election. Netanyahu takes a harder line on peace talks with the Palestinians than Livni, who says her goal is a full peace treaty with the Palestinians as soon as possible. Given the lack of movement toward a peace treaty so far, the lack of any encouraging signs for the near future, and the time a new US president would need to settle down in the job, an Israeli election that would put opposition leader Netanyahu in power at the head of a hard-line rightist government would be the last nail in the coffin.
