It was predictable that the report issued yesterday by the US National Intelligence Council on future geopolitical trends should be presented as bad news for the US with headlines proclaiming that its dominance in decline as China, India, Russia and even Iran grow in economic and thereby political and military strength. Such headlines make for arresting news — there is nothing the media like better. They also provide gratifying reading for anyone of an anti-American nature.
But such a reading fundamentally misunderstands what this detailed and highly thoughtful report says. Written by the National Intelligence Council to keep American policymakers well informed, it is not going to have them quaking in their boots. First because, covering a wide range of issues, from food and water, potential political instability in Africa and the possibilities of global pandemics to terrorism, potential East-West conflict and nuclear proliferation and possible nuclear weapons use, it does not say anything that has not already been taken on board in Washington. Secondly, because the report does not say that US is going to be of minor importance in the year 2025. On the contrary, it says that it will still be “the single most important actor, but will be less dominant”.
But while agreeing that China and India certainly, others probably, are going to become far more influential, what exactly is this US dominance that so many people assume is the case today? Do we live in a unipolar world? Did we ever? Is Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s recent analysis that the world has moved on to a multipolar one correct in the first place? The issue is far from simple. That the US can force its will on some governments, primarily through financial means, goes without saying. But so too can Russia — think Central Asia — as can China and France. That the Americans, too, have the power to invade and occupy a country like Iraq against the wishes of the UN and, as such, out with international law, is also obvious. But so can Russia (as in Georgia). Moreover, invading a weak and easy target such as Iraq does not mean that the US has the power to invade any country it wishes. It does not mean a unipolar world. The US does not and has never dominated China. It cannot force its will on India or the EU, on Russia or Brazil — and there are many more who do not bow to Washington’s command. Washington’s singular dominance is much exaggerated but believed in — which is why we are astounded when the US Navy cannot put paid to Somali pirates and learn that the Indian Navy makes a better show of it. That is not to say that Washington’s influence is not great, greater than any other single power — but that, predicts the report, is how it will still be in 17 years’ time.
Some of the report has to be questioned, in particular the idea that Iran is going to be a significant rival to the US alongside China and India or that a more multipolar world is potentially more dangerous because there will be more rivalries. On the contrary, the more prosperous India, China and others become, the more prosperous the US becomes, the more prosperous we all become. The world is not made up of isolated economies. The rapid spread of the present financial crisis is proof of that. Likewise the suggestion that the dollar may no longer be the world’s major currency in 2025. That may have seemed more feasible during the summer when the euro gained in strength but since then, despite the financial crisis, it is the dollar that is strengthening against the euro. After such unexpected turmoil, no one dare predict what will happen on the economic front in 17 days’ time, let alone 17 years.
