It is not simply Shiite groups such as the Sadrists who are opposed to the security deal with the US, as approved last week by the Iraqi Parliament. An overwhelming majority of the Iraqis want the US troops to leave their country as early as possible. To them the security pact is occupation by other means. They blame the US for the chaos and violence that has torn their country apart over the last five years.
There will be those who argue cogently that the Al-Maliki government is a US puppet and that the Parliament’s rubber-stamping of the deal that will see the Americans finally quit in 2011, has been done at the behest of Washington and not the Iraqi people. After all it was American prompting that caused Al-Maliki in 2007 to push for the UN mandate for the continued presence of Anglo-American troops. The mandate, to end this year, is to be replaced by a bilateral deal between Baghdad and Washington. And the Iraqi government knows that signing the deal with all its unfavorable terms is the only way to get the Americans out.
There will, however, be an early opportunity to assess whether this US withdrawal deal is more than just window-dressing. Provincial elections at the start of the year will give some indication of public support for the Al-Maliki government candidates — to the extent it is possible in an election taking place while the foreign troops are still in Iraq. But the two big tests will come in the middle of the year. First, US troops are scheduled to quit Iraq’s streets and retire to barracks, from where they will thereafter confine their efforts to supporting and training of the Iraqi Army and security forces. Then it will be the Iraqis who are supposed to be responsible for security.
The second big test will be the referendum scheduled to seek the approval of ordinary Iraqis for the 2011 pullout timetable. If the Al-Maliki government doesn’t receive the approval it seeks, then it will have to reopen negotiations. Should this prove necessary, it will be a real test of just how independent the Baghdad government is. It would be encouraging to believe that given Barack Obama’s assurances that he favors an early US pullout, Al-Maliki would find himself pushing against an open door. Therefore the best hope for those who want the occupation over sooner rather than later will be a “No” vote in the summer.
The resistance, whom Bush’s “surge” has failed to quell, can be expected to redouble their attacks in the coming months. And there are those who suspect that some in Washington want the violence to continue so there is an excuse to continue the occupation. It is, therefore, incumbent upon the Iraqi security forces to demonstrate that they can restore a measure of security. Equally important is the necessity for Iraqi politicians to continue to work together. The Iraqi Parliament may rightly be suspected of bribery and corruption and as legislatures go, far from ideal. But at least it is a forum where all views can be expressed and deals done. Without it, communal rivalries would move back to the streets, chaos would return and Washington will have another excuse to prolong an ugly occupation.
