TWO indicators emerge from the elections in Kashmir now that the final round of voting is over. One is highly encouraging, the other the opposite. The good news is that voters did not boycott the polls, despite calls to do so from separatists and despite massive separatist protests just weeks ago. On the contrary, the turnout was unexpectedly high, 61.5 percent compared to 43 percent in 2002. The not-so-good news is the rise in support for the BJP among Hindu voters. The emergence of a fundamentally anti-Muslim party in what is not only India’s sole Muslim majority state but one that has been a war zone for the past two decades, with over 40,000 people killed, and where religion is seen as being linked to political loyalty and identity is deeply worrying. The BJP has stirred up religion dissension for political gain elsewhere in India. That it would not do so in Kashmir is difficult to believe. This could so easily rekindle suspicions and trigger fresh violence just when tensions in the states are beginning to ease.

It is ironic that outside India, Kashmir (though not to the extent of Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan or Chechnya) is a rallying cry for extremists while in the state itself, the appetite for militancy is waning. Violence is at its lowest level since the insurgency began in 1989. Some may say that is due to improved Indian military activity and intelligence. It may be part of the explanation, as may also be the belief that militants are finding it more difficult to operate out of Pakistan. But they are a small part. The bigger reason is that the majority of Kashmiris have had enough of violence. They want a peaceful future — and they want to arrive at it peacefully, too. In other words, through political process. The result is that there is no longer the same level of support for the militants that allowed them to operate with a degree of ease. That is seen in the 40-percent drop in the number of incidents in Kashmir this year. At 700, it is still a lot, but it is greatly encouraging.

The fact is that if most Muslim Kashmiris supported the militants or just the separatists they would not have voted in the elections. They were not forced to go to the polls; but they did. Even in Muslim-majority areas, the turnout was 50 percent and over. That is just slightly down on the 2002 figure and says that extremely few heeded the separatists’ call, despite the recent protests. Moreover, those who voted supported parties that accept the constitutional situation at present. In short, when Kashmiris are actually asked their views, the answer they give is rather different to the one that the militants or the separatists would have us believe. It should not be so surprising. Silent majorities are just that. (It also explains why militants the world over so often hate democracy.)

Nonetheless, Kashmir will remain a powder keg for as long as it is a bone of contention between India and Pakistan. That gives the militants a powerful and dangerous lever. They can drive wedges between the two countries, as has happened with the Mumbai bombings. That is why the arrival of the BJP on the Kashmiri scene, riding high on Hindu resentment at the Amarnath land transfer fiasco, is so worrying. They are the Indian side of the militant coin. If they try and step up religious discord, there will be a backlash and it will be seen in a rise again in support for the militants. The one hope is that just as Muslim anger at the initial Amarnath transfer gradually dissipated after the authorities reversed their decision to hand over the land for Hindu pilgrim facilities (which is why the separatists failed to capitalize on it as they hoped), so too Hindu resentment will recede in time. Either way, however, the lesson for India — and Pakistan — surely has to be that Kashmir is put into cold storage as an issue on which they are prepared to fight a war. The minute they commit themselves to that, the militants have lost their greatest weapon.