The release of four generals arbitrarily detained as suspects in the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination has Hamra’s politicized pockets in a state of euphoria as they weigh the potential impact of the decision on the upcoming elections.
Word on the street in Beirut’s largest Muslim stronghold suggests that when Jamil Sayyed, Ali Hajj, Raymond Azar and Mustafa Hamdan were escorted out of prison, they signaled a serious shift in balance of power.
Driving his cab around Beirut gives Ali Taher access to all kinds of sensitive conversations and areas, and he says he uses it to gauge the political pulse of the city.
He gestures at his steering wheel and says: “This is like a thermometer, I can feel the temperature rising in the city, I can feel it becoming calm also from all the people I talk to, and now the generals are released, the resistance is calm. The resistance is the Party of God. There is only one true resistance and everyone else is a supporter. You don’t know what it’s called? Hezbollah.”
He adds: “The talk in my cab from Hamra to Achrafieh to Jouneih is the same. No need for rioting. The parties that sided with America will drown now, and the tide of Hezbollah will rise.”
Gesturing at people crossing the street, he says, “I am Hezbollah, and so is he and he and she and she ... Hariri is for the rich, Hezbollah for everyone else.”
But Suha Zanani, moving to music at Walima café, explains why his logic is flawed: “It is ironic that it is Shiites and Sunnis who are so polarized that they cannot really switch sides and decide the outcome of the elections. If you ask my family, we will all vote for Hariri, because we cannot imagine voting Shiites in. But what is really ironic is that for all the international ideas that Lebanese politics are moved by Shia or the Sunni camp, it is Christians who will decide the vote, because they may switch from one side to the other. Michel Aoun presents those who don’t really like Hezbollah with a real option.”
Guns go off like firecrackers somewhere in the tangle of streets that bind Hamra, and not one person nursing a cup of coffee on the Hamra street is even vaguely perturbed. A few of the older men engaged in Lebanon’s national sport, the lambasting of political leaders over coffee, look up and smile at what they say is clearly a celebration of the generals’ release.
“Of course the election will be affected now — already it was close. The release signals something very important, that these generals who were arrested were put away by the political pressure exerted by the Hariri camp, and now the Hariri camps are losing influence; they are weak and no one wants a weak government, and if Hariri party is so weak even some of its supporters may consider Aoun and Hezbollah,” said a Lebanese American in his fifties.
A professor cuts in: “Hariri and his collaboration with the Western powers was not liked by us at all, and now that America’s influence is going down in the region, look at their failure in Iraq, and Israel is finding it harder to manipulate America because of Obama, we are all hopeful that change for Lebanon is confirmed. The Hariri bloc was first mixed up with Syria, then the West, this confuses the Lebanese people.”
At another café down the street, Ahmed Yassine is sitting at a table he has turned into his electoral office. He is running for the fifth time.
“It is sad when I talk to young people about voting, I only hear them say ‘what is the use, you can buy my vote, so what is the value of my vote, in Bekka Valley, the price is $500 to $600 for your vote, so why will the young be motivated to vote? We know the race will be close, but Hezbollah is strong with Aoun,” said Yassine.
“I would rather vote for Ahmed Yassine, he is from Hamra, he is an honest man, he is trying to educate the neighborhood about electoral process,” said Mohamad Abou Hamia.
“I am not voting, I refuse to get a national identity card because I don’t think I have a choice, the parties don’t talk about jobs, look at the state of the economy, all because of property and here we have a property bubble because all the Lebanese Americans and Canadians hit by the crisis have liquidated their assets and injected cash into Lebanon. Everything is calm before the elections because both parties feel confident, which is sad for democracy. They don’t even have to prove they deserve power.”
At Barometer, a popular Hamra hangout, the tables get pushed aside after dinner and dozens of Beirutis break it down to Lebanese beats on the cramped makeshift dance floor.
The party spills out onto the terrace and Hassan takes a break from weaving between the revelers doing the “dabke” to explain why he isn’t voting.
“I liked the older Hariri but this guy now standing for power is just a figure collecting votes for his father, why should I cast a vote, I have no feeling for Hezbollah, I don’t trust them and the policies I trust are now in the control of an inexperienced man, a puppet,” he said before shouting out the lyrics for a patriotic jingle celebrating the spirit of Lebanon, and returning to the dance floor.
A prominent human rights worker is disturbed by the signal that the generals’ release is giving off.
“All this means is that four men who were held without charge and without sufficient evidence to justify charging them have been released and cleared. An important step for justice, but this should have no effect on the political situation. The generals are not Hezbollah, why should Hezbollah claim their release as a victory, and yet indirectly it is. Public opinion is powerful and, right or wrong, it can decide the election, even when it is clearly manipulated and distorted.”