JEDDAH: On the eve of the crucial Lebanon elections, many experts have expressed the view that the increasingly vertical divide of coalitions would in all likelihood affect the identity of the nation. In what is being predicted as one of the tightest races, the new government, some say, could be partial to external influences.
It would be against the interests of Lebanon for the Hezbollah-dominated March 8 coalition to win the country’s parliamentary election today, said Dr. Waheed Hashem, professor of political study at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
Hashem said such a win would pose a real challenge to Lebanon, deeply affecting all of the country’s sectors, including tourism. The election is mainly being fought by the Hezbollah-dominated March 8 coalition on the one side and the Sunni-dominated March 14 coalition on the other — both parties include the nation’s Christian minorities.
Hashem said the political conflict reminds one of the Lebanese Civil War and that a March 14 win would open up many opportunities for Lebanon. He also said that the regional and international importance of the Lebanese election could not be ignored, this is regardless of whether it is American, Iranian or Syrian interests in Lebanon.
When asked whether independent candidates have been marginalized because of the two major parties, he said that the role of independents is crucial in determining the election’s winner.
Dr. Sarhan Al-Otaibi, professor of political science at King Saud University, said the election should not be viewed along sectarian lines. “We should look at them as two leading parties that are influenced by internal and external elements. The role of external influences on the Lebanese elections is a major and very important one,” he said.
Al-Otaibi said since Rafik Hariri’s assassination, the role of external factors (Iranian, Syrian, Middle Eastern, American and French) in internal Lebanese political affairs is widely visible. The conflict and lack of harmony between these regional and international elements is the main reason that has dragged Lebanon into this mess in the first place, he said. “If the Lebanese people want to adapt a balanced policy that serves Lebanese interests in the first place, then there should be understanding between the two coalitions. This should have not been left to outside forces to determine,” he said.
Muneer Al-Khateeb, a Lebanese political analysts, said the election is not based on sectarianism, and should not be classified along sectarian lines.
The March 14 coalition is Sunni in majority and includes other groups, he said, adding that the same goes with the Hezbollah-dominated March 8 coalition with the majority Shiites and the Christians also forming a heavy political presence.
The country’s Armenian population, although a minority, is expected to determine the election’s winner.
He ruled out the effectiveness of regional influence on the election saying that the candidates are Lebanese, the voters are Lebanese and that the election is taking place on Lebanese soil.
“Yes, both coalitions accuse each other of serving other regional or international powers, but they are equally influenced by outside forces. The regional influence is effective but will not determine the winner,” said Al-Khateeb.
He said that if the March 8 coalition wins the election, the group would not be boycotted because they would be dealt with as a Lebanese power. He said that Western countries have previously given reassurances to accept the election results as long as the “the election is fair and clean, and there are no security issues.”
He clarified that Iranian support for Hezbollah would be with tight official Lebanese approval. He also stressed that there is no chance for the Salafi group forming a presence in Lebanon, as the country is diverse.
