WASHINGTON: The Obama Administration is preparing to deliver a “tsunami of cash” to its foreign assistance budget, bringing it from $26 billion to $50 billion. A chunk of this money is already earmarked for Afghanistan.
Also this year, the US shifted its focus or the “war on terrorism” from Iraq to Afghanistan. US forces are slated to reach 68,000 by year-end, more than double the 32,000 troops at the end of last year.
Speaking recently at the Washington, D.C.-based US Institute of Peace, David Kilcullen, an incoming advisor to Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan, spoke about counterinsurgency and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan.
He painted a gloomy picture in a country where American and international aid has grown dramatically since 2006, but violence has also spiked some 500 percent in that same time frame, according to Kilcullen.
“We’ve been fighting the insurgents rather than the insurgency” for too long, Kilcullen said, while propping up an Afghan government that is comprised of little more than “little fiefdoms” that compete with one another for influence and resources.
Construction projects, which are supposed to help develop the private sector, have been marred by corruption.
Much of this corruption, said Kilcullen, relies on aid money sent to do things like build roads, dig wells, and build some kind of infrastructure in a country that has precious little. Afghan contractors collude to rig the bidding process and sometimes murder competitors.
Andrew Wilder, research director at Tufts University who also spoke at the USIP event, said what’s missing is a viable political solution.
Many Afghans perceive their government as corrupt, he said, which hurts US efforts to sway support away from the Taliban.
An article by Elizabeth Rubin in this week’s New York Times magazine profiles Afghan president Hamid Karzai as a man who is essentially cut off from the country he ostensibly runs, and who cuts deals with warlords, corrupt officials, and criminal gangs in order to keep a lid on dissent.
The new American strategy emphasizes gaining support from ordinary Afghans and minimizing Taliban influence in the war-torn country.
Kilcullen said those efforts are not working as currently implemented. British forces there, he noted, have compared such operations to "mowing the lawn."
And, just as the lawn in the yard of this correspondent grows back with vigor, so do Taleban forces return after being “cleared” - endangering locals who emerged to help US forces develop the area, said Kilcullen. Once the troops withdraw, the Taliban returns and kills them, assisted by the eyes and ears of smaller cells of Taliban-linked villagers who intimidate local leaders.
“If you can't stay in an area, its better not to go in at all,” Kilcullen said, adding that at least that will keep people alive who are pro-coalition and anti-Taleban.
The US must learn to distinguish between “insurgents” and “the insurgency,” Kilcullen said. All too often, the war is “enemy-centric” and US forces are focused on stamping out the bad guys while overlooking the causes of instability – which may lead to Taliban support, either by force or through choice.
Wilder also observed that while the vast majority of the aid money is going to projects in the violent southern and eastern regions of the country, those in the north and west have started complaining about the “peace penalty” they’re suffering—since their road and agriculture programs aren’t receiving the same amount of funding as those in Taliban-infested areas.
Also problematic is the lack of cultural knowledge and language skills among some provincial reconstruction teams - teams of military and civilian personnel engaged in development. Another problem is that Afghans have learned that these teams rotate in and out, often every six months – while the Taliban remain.
As the budget for foreign assistance is expected to grow five fold over the next five years, Kilcullen said the question remains whether the USAID - the US organization responsible for most non-military foreign aid - can handle the coming “tsunami of cash.”
