KABUL: A single rifle-toting guard paces vigilantly near the gate that leads into the garden of Abdullah Abdullah's home in a residential suburb of Kabul. Security measures were heightened across the capital following Saturday morning's suicide attacks near NATO headquarters, but the mood at the home of President Hamid Karzai's leading challenger in the forthcoming elections, is relatively unperturbed. The garden is impeccably manicured, the lawn freshly watered. Blossoming pink rosebushes give off a sweet fragrance. It is an elegant garden much like the man himself who is often noted for his sartorial savvy.
In the run-up to Afghanistan's second 'democratic' presidential elections set for Aug. 20, the ophthalmologist-cum-politician is campaigning feverishly to garner the support of undecided voters. If he's not addressing thousands at rallies in volatile parts of the country, he has back-to-back meetings in Kabul. But his demeanor betrays not a sign of stress, his finely tailored pin-striped suit, not a single crease. He strides across the garden to the set of wicker chairs where we are seated, and apologizes for being a little late for our appointment.
According to most unofficial polls, Karzai is expected to garner the greatest number of votes, but not the 51 percent required to secure a victory in the first round. The elections will likely move to a run-off. Abdullah, a former foreign minister, is touted as the leading challenger to the incumbent, followed by Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister and World Bank strategist.
Some observers argue that what has given Abdullah and most other candidates a boost is not the popularity they enjoy among the Afghan populace, but a result of the overwhelming unpopularity of the incumbent.
"President Karzai has turned golden opportunities into a crisis," begins Abdullah, as green tea is served on a silver platter. "An opportunity in which the people of Afghanistan had come together and the international community had joined hands in supporting Afghanistan. After some time, things got better, and then started not getting better. Now there is a deteriorating trend."
Escalating violence across the country, mostly in the east and south, has in large part been attributed to Karzai's failure to address socio-economic problems. Poverty is rampant nationwide.
"Karzai is not a leader," charges Abdullah. "He is politician and tactician. His vision is very blurred. His management skills are questionable."
According to this presidential contender, the solution is to decentralize power in Afghanistan, and make the people 'stakeholders' in the decision-making process.
"(Karzai's) program is that all the power must be centered in the presidential palace (whereas) my whole program is based on the people's participation, how to make them stakeholders. Under (Karzai's) leadership, there has been a growing gap between the public and the state," he says, adding that he hopes to build 'a people's government'.
Abdullah's call for a more decentralized form of governance is largely met with resistance by most Pashtuns, who constitute a majority and have traditionally ruled over Afghanistan. But those who advocate decentralization underline that each province is different from the other and each has distinct needs which can best be met by an elected individual rather than a bureaucrat randomly appointed from Kabul.
"In a highly centralized system, you put one person in charge, then everything will be based on connections to that office and the interest of that country will be compromised," he explains.
A major point in Abdullah's agenda is to shift Afghanistan from a presidential system to a parliamentary one -- albeit, critics of this plan have pointed out that this is no simple feat as it would require a Loya Jirga (national assembly) and amending the constitution. A change in the constitution, some fear, would even open an avenue for conservative elements to remove various progressive articles in the charter, which were inserted with great difficulty in the first place, such as those concerning human rights and women.
"The majority of the Afghan people are moderate Muslims," says Abdullah, self-assuredly. "I don't see that danger. As a whole, it will be OK and hopefully, it will endorse change in system."
But one cardinal issue in the presidential race is how to deal with the Taleban. President Karzai has famously attempted two diverging approaches; on the one hand, he has waged dialogue, and later, confrontation. Neither tactic appears to have yielded results and Taleban spokesmen have vowed to disrupt the forthcoming polls with more violence.
"The national reconciliation program has to be in the realm of the constitution of Afghanistan. It has to be nationally debated and the focus has to be broad. At the moment, the government is losing the (people's support) and insurgency is getting strengthened," says the presidential hopeful, whose father is Pashtun and mother Tajik, but has usually been associated with the mostly Tajik 'Panjsheri' faction, which led the resistance against the Taleban.
According to Abdullah, there are thousands of people under the banner of the Taleban, and some may have joined "because of other grievances, such as injustice, bad government, corruption, or socio-economic circumstances".
"Our focus will be much broader than just the narrow focus on talks with Taleban leaders. It will be on the provinces and different areas of Afghanistan. Local solutions for local problems, rather than thinking we can make peace with Taleban leader," says Abdullah. "(Besides) I don't think the Taleban leadership are ready to talk at this stage. Why waste time on that line?"
Another plus point for Abdullah's camp is that despite his support for the 'mujahideen credo', he has reached outside the norm by bringing two technocrats with no factional affiliations onto his ticket. One is a Pashtun with a monarchist background and the other a popular Hazara medical doctor. This will likely be viewed positively by most Afghans who are eager to see less of a role played by names associated with 'warlordism'.
One related aspect, however, has been Abdullah's proposed strategy vis-a-vis war veterans. He argues that because these fighters were neglected by the system once the wars were over, they are now marginalized members of society who do not have the skills or education to integrate into the new order. Numbering in the hundreds of thousands, they constitute perfect fodder for Taleban recruits, explains Abdullah.
A controversial approach, which has been met with harsh criticism by other presidential candidates is his proposal to integrate some of these war veterans into the Afghan National Army. Detractors of this plan suggest that it would be dangerous as it may lead to another civil war.
Insofar as foreign policy, Abdullah says he does not plan to make any drastic changes, except to further strengthen relations with Islamic countries. Relations with neighboring Pakistan, which has had its ups and down, will be viewed within the paradigm of new, shared realities, he says.
While Karzai has often been seen as an American puppet, there is speculation over the foreign backing that each of the leading presidential candidates enjoy, especially in light of the lax regulations over the source of campaign financing in Afghanistan. Abdullah in particular has been linked with Iran, Russia.
"There will be more linkages as well!" he jokes. "I'm not worried about that. It is the people of Afghanistan who have supported my campaign."
Another point of debate has been whether the ongoing political wrangling have resulted in causing a fissure in the Panjsheri faction. With Karzai appointing Marshall Mohamed Qasim Fahim, a prominent Panjsheri, as first presidential running-mate, to help boost his support base among the Tajiks of the north, there are rumors that the faction has been split between those who shifted their allegiance to the incumbent, and those who support Abdullah, whose bid is significantly backed by former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, an ethnic Tajik.
"Karzai has been successful in dividing the country," exclaims Abdullah. "As far as Panjsheris are concerned, I have absolute majority support in Panjsher. You cannot say I have the endorsement of every individual. That doesn't happen anywhere. But if you are talking about majority, I have the majority."