If you ask Dr. Hanan Balkhy, the head of the Research Promotion and Education Section of King Abdullah International Medical Research Center in Riyadh, concerns over the swine flu pandemic have been spurred on mostly by media hype.
Calling the pandemic “a normal cycle of the influenza virus,” which has been expected by experts for the last half decade, the doctor pointed out that the scientific community has been expecting this virus for years.
“If people were to study replete literature over the past 10 years they would find many articles related to the awaiting of the next flu pandemic, and that it was expected for at least the past five years,” she said.
Balkhy also explained that due to this cycle, a new influenza virus will appear every 15 to 20 years and will cause a pandemic due to the fact that most individuals will not be immune to the virus since they would not have been exposed to it before.
A similar article published in a recent issue of Time magazine (“Who’s Afraid of the Flu?”) explained that the cycle of flu pandemics could be traced as far back as 1889.
The article also stated that before the current H1N1 virus made recent headlines, there was another type of flu virus that emerged in 1918, which was a type of H1N1 virus. (The current swine flu virus is actually H1N1 type A.) The disease developed into a pandemic, targeting the young and claiming the lives of as many as 50 million people worldwide, all under the age of 40. Today’s fight against the H1N1/A virus began before it exploded on the world scene as vigorously as it’s early 20th century antecedent. Disease experts say that the current measures are an attempt to avoid repeating history.
“Historical accounts suggest that the 1918 H1N1 virus first debuted as a mild springtime strain, much like the current H1N1, before returning in the fall as a killing machine more efficient than World War I, and within six months killing more people than AIDS has in 28 years,” the article stated.
Balkhy said that delaying the school year in Saudi Arabia was a wise decision.
“There is a challenge to prepare the schools for this and future similar outbreaks where an alternative educational process should be available, such as Internet education and other methods with the least amount of interruption to the educational process,” she said.
Balkhy also said that while schools are scheduled to open on Saturday, it’s possible that the Saudi government could still extend the delayed opening of the school year.
“It could be either way, as there is no right or wrong answer to this question,” she said. “However, we will still need to be vigilant in following the behavior of the disease and reacting quickly to any surge in cases or increased deaths that may happen during winter, by suspending or closing schools.”
Balkhy further stated there is also another aspect related to the delay of reopening schools.
“The big picture that many people miss is that along with the H1N1 pandemic, the health care system has to continue to serve the ill of other diseases,” she said. She explained that in situations where a pandemic is occurring in a community, the overwhelming numbers of patients would create chaos to the medical services and especially the emergency care departments.