- IHS Global Insight Perspective says: Though the Israel's deadly raid on Gaza aid ship sparked international condemnation, the Middle East state is however suffering from the blow that it dealt the flotilla.
In a week when the United States had been preparing to patch up strained relations with Israel, the latter is mired in a new diplomatic crisis following the deaths of 10 activists on board an aid flotilla bound for Gaza.
Israel is already suffering the diplomatic fallout from last year's fake-passport scandal and its policy on settlements, which have undermined US-led efforts to restart peace talks.
Although Israel sought to justify its use of force by alleging that passengers on the vessel were armed, many questions remain unanswered and an international investigation appears unavoidable. The deaths have triggered protests in cities across the Middle East and Europe.
Israel's relations with more moderate governments in the region such as Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan are now acutely strained, and with a drawn-out investigation in prospect the incident will loom over any peace efforts for months to come.
Israel is once again picking its way through a diplomatic minefield as international condemnation of Monday's deadly raid on a vessel carrying aid to the Gaza Strip continues to grow. The deaths occurred when an Israeli elite commando force stormed the Mavi Marmara, which was carrying some 700 activists and 10,000 tons of humanitarian aid. It was the lead ship in a six-vessel "Freedom Flotilla". Ten activists were killed during the fighting and scores more were injured. Israeli officials said that troops were attacked with knives, sticks, and axes as they were lowered onto the ship's deck from helicopters, forcing them to retaliate in self-defense. The flotilla was in international waters at the time but Israel says it has the right to search any Gaza-bound ships and combat weapons smuggling. Questions remain over whether more could have been done to prevent the loss of so many lives. Critics argue that the heavily armed naval commando unit - Shayetet 13 - should have been able to physically overpower the activists without firing.
A media blackout imposed by Israel has meant that only minor details of the events have been made available, a move which itself reflects Israeli concerns to limit the fallout from the crisis. However, even the skilled spokespersons at the Israeli Foreign Ministry may have trouble with damage limitation this time, given the scale and international nature of the incident. Following the raid the ship was taken to the Israeli port of Ashdod where injured activists were taken for treatment and some were prepared for deportation. Hospitalized activists are being held under military guard, according to the Jerusalem Post. The fate of the majority of activists (from over 32 countries) has still not been confirmed. According to the International Press Institute several foreign journalists covering the events were arrested at the port. International publicity surrounding has been heightened by the fact that a number of prominent figures were among the passengers on board the flotilla. These include Swedish author Henning Mankell, Northern Irish Nobel peace laureate Mairead Corrigan-Maguire, and three German MPs.
The international response to the incident has been one of condemnation. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said he was "shocked" by the killings. European leaders have also made strongly critical statements; British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that "the British government deeply deplores the loss of life" and urged Israel to act with "restraint".
Similar sentiments were echoed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel who also urged Israel's prime minister to lift the Gaza blockade on humanitarian grounds. The United States also called for restraint but stopped short of calling for a full international investigation into the incident, stressing instead that Israel should launch its own internal investigation. Protests against the storming of the vessel were seen across cities in Europe and the Middle East, with large demonstrations held in Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan. These are Israel's only three allies in the region, and many demonstrators were heard calling for the severing of diplomatic ties and the withdrawal of ambassadors from Israel.
Meanwhile, thousands of Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza took to the streets to protest. Several skirmishes were reported at border checkpoints in the West Bank. A young female American activist was one of around two dozen injured. Israel's Arab community also staged a national strike. Meanwhile, two men from Gaza were shot dead by Israeli troops as they tried to infiltrate Israel.
The outcry in Turkey has been great, not only because many of the casualties are believed to have been Turkish, but also because existing resentment among supporters of the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) against Israel's policies toward the Palestinians has been sharpened. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sharply criticized the Israeli government on several occasions in the past, and some AKP voters may interpret the raid as a form of Israeli retaliation.
Turkey currently has a temporary seat on the UN Security Council and will use this to make its outrage heard. Erdogan has condemned the raid as an act of "inhumane state terrorism" making it clear that the two countries' traditional alliance is in jeopardy. The situation should be seen in the context of Turkey's wider maneuvers to boost its role in world affairs. The recent nuclear fuel-swap deal brokered with Iran and Brazil was hailed by the Turkish government as a great success but it left most permanent UN Security Council members cold.
Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu may use the flotilla raid to increase Turkey's international clout. The incident is also likely to be used as a rallying cry for AKP supporters ahead of the 2011 parliamentary polls and the controversial referendum on the new Turkish constitution later this year. Israeli-Turkish relations therefore look unlikely to improve until after 2011.
The raid once again draws attention to the uneasy relationship between the current US administration and the Israeli government. Since taking office, President Barack Obama and his Cabinet have been at pains to underline their staunch support for Israel, but a string of controversies has severely tested the former's patience. Lately these have included the poorly-timed Israeli announcement that it was stepping up construction in occupied territories and an assassination in Dubai (widely blamed on Israel). Obama is performing a very difficult juggling act as he tries to appear an honest broker in the Middle East who can bring the sides together for a renewed peace effort. Strong US support for Israel also complicates relations with allies in Europe, and now particularly with Turkey. So far, the United States has been careful in its comments about the raid, its criticism more muted than that heard from European foreign ministers.
Obama apparently expressed "deep regret" at the loss of life during a phone conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu and recognized "the importance of learning all the facts and circumstances" as soon as possible. Obama has been spared a testy encounter and photo opportunity with Netanyahu this week following the latter's decision to abandon his scheduled visit to Washington, DC. However, Obama faces a huge dilemma, as to take a tougher line with Israel would bring him into conflict with the hugely powerful pro-Israel lobby. Many prominent Democrats take pride in their support for Israel, including Vice-President Joe Biden and Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel - even if their appreciation for Netanyahu is less fullsome. The United States currently supports the Gaza blockade officially, but it is reported in the New York Times on Tuesday that there are serious internal misgivings. Gaza's status has generally been ignored as world powers have focused on bringing Israel and the Palestinian government of the West Bank to an agreement, but this now looks untenable.
Netanyahu's US trip is to be reorganized "at the earliest opportunity", but both men will approach it warily. This week's meeting was paradoxically seen as an opportunity to "kiss and make up."
For Israel the incident has likely caused long-lasting damage to an already-tarnished international reputation. Its leverage with the United States is diminished, and it is likely to face even greater pressure to change its policy on settlements. These have been hampering US efforts to resuscitate the long-stalled peace process. Questions will remain over whether more could have been done to prevent the loss of so many lives, and criticism of the Gaza blockade will grow around the world.
Critics of the blockade argue that by preventing legitimate cross-border trade, illicit trade has been encouraged and Hamas' rule strengthened. Israel disputes this assessment, arguing that Hamas has been weakened by Gazans' frustration with their situation. Israeli officials' attempts to make this case, and to defend the handling of the flotilla, have cut little ice beyond the country's staunchest supporters, however. A lengthy international investigation is likely to draw out the crisis.
(Sara Hassan, James Auger and Grace Annan contributed to this analysis)



