- ATHENS: Greece is on track with its fiscal and broader economic reforms and hopes to return to bond markets in 2011 after a milder than expected recession this year, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said on Wednesday.
But its efforts to manage a debilitating debt crisis are still tinged with risk, mainly in spending on health care and pension funds, and the country must avoid reform fatigue, he told Reuters in an interview.
"Our goal is to finish the year with triple good news: A deficit-reducing effort which is convincing and on target, a structural reform effort which is convincing and fully successful and a better than expected growth rate," Papaconstantinou said.
"These three I think will change perceptions, convince those who find it hard to be convinced that we are on the right track and it will make it easier some time in 2011 to return to (bond) markets."
Greece has taken draconian fiscal measures to exit a debt crisis that has rattled the whole euro zone, many set as conditions for a 110 billion euro aid deal clinched with the IMF and the European Union.
Papaconstantinou ruled out any restructuring of the country's debt — a measure many market professionals have already priced in.
"As I have often said, restructuring is completely off the table. What we are focusing on is successful program implementation."
He said reforms were paying off and no new ones were planned but risks should not be underestimated.
"There are two things which are always a potential risk. One is expenditure overruns ... and the second is reform fatigue. The good results we have been having should not make us think that we have finished the reform process. We haven't. There is a lot to be done," he said.
Hospital bills and some pension funds were the main concerns, but would not endanger the aim of cutting the budget deficit to 8.1 percent of GDP this year from 13.6 in 2009.
He said signals on GDP, which has been forecast to shrink by 4 percent this year, were encouraging, though inflation, projected at 1.9 percent, would probably overshoot this year.
"We hope to close the year with a better (growth) performance than that projected," he said. "It's hard to predict, anything between 3 and 4 percent ... It will depend on whether the third quarter sees a drop as the measures hit or ... is the beginning of a return to confidence."
Given such good signals, Papaconstantinou would like Greece to return to bond markets next year, although the EU/IMF 3-year deal affords more time. Some rating agencies have cut Greek bonds to junk status and spreads have been prohibitive.
Greece will issue shorter-term T-bills to cover paper maturing in July, the first sortie since the deal was clinched in May. Papaconstantinou said two auctions, on July 13 and 20, will aim to raise just over 4 billion euros, the sums expiring.
"I don't see at this point that we will try to go for more," he said. "It's going to be a plain vanilla mechanical exercise."
He said a Spanish bond issue on Tuesday, which drew solid investor interest, was a good sign for Greece.
He said structural reforms ahead included the liberalization of closed professions, laws improving the business environment and a big privatization agenda. He dismissed reports that a one-off corporate tax would be extended beyond 2013.
He was confident Greek banks would do well in stress tests being prepared for publication by European authorities but should consider mergers to weather the financial crisis.
"It's clear that the only point where there can be criticism is their exposure to Greek sovereign debt. Apart from that they continue to be very solvent," he said. "At the same time ... Greek banks need to think of the next day, strategic moves, they need to think about possible partnerships."
On tourism, a main pillar of the economy, he expects revenues to drop by 10-15 percent this year, in line with industry forecasts.
He said he was confident a controversial bill raising the retirement age and cutting pensions would clear parliament this week and weather legal challenges. Unions have staged protests, and a general strike against the bill is planned Thursday.
"There is no alternative to creating a viable pension system," he said.
Analysts say social equilibrium is key to Greece's success and many fear more intense protests in the autumn. Opinion polls show declining support for the government, although it still heads the opposition, which most people blame for the crisis.
Papaconstantinou said it was critical to convince the public that the measures came with social justice, that was why his ministry was pushing hard to battle tax evasion.
"People are in a difficult situation, they are often angry with what's going on, but ... they accept sacrifices as long as they see justice and the end of the tunnel," he said.

