In part, this has been due to a combination of restructuring and promotions plus growing confidence in the marketplace.

For most manufacturers, however, the main motor for growth has been Asia rather than their traditional markets in North America and Europe. And that is the way it will remain. Ford, for example, expects that between now and 2020, 70 percent of its growth will occur in Asia and Africa.

The Saudi market is very much seen as part of that vehicle-maker’s Eldorado.  The largest in the region, it has not been hit as Western markets and is again in bullish mood. After an exceptional high in 2008, when car sales hit a record 620,000 vehicles, 2009 was still encouraging. Even though the market was affected by confidence, auto sales were worth a reported SR34 billion. Figures for 2010 have yet to be posted, but industry reports indicate that demand in the past 12 months has surged. Last year, the organizers of the Riyadh Motor Show, the oldest and biggest in the region, anticipated that sales of vehicles in 2010 would be double that of 2009. As for 2011, it is expected to be the best ever.

The show organizers also predicted that by 2013 sales would hit 880,000 vehicles a year. That is a 50 percent increase on 2008 levels. It may even be an underestimation. That is because the Saudi market is as much about demographics as it about finance and confidence.

The Kingdom has one of the highest growth rates in the world despite a decline in the past two years — from 1.96 percent to 1.55 percent. More to the point, according to accepted statistics, almost 38 percent of the country’s population of 27 million is under 14 years of age.  A further 18 percent, or 4.9 million, is aged between 15 and 24. That represents a lot of vehicle sales in the near future.

Every Saudi household has at least one vehicle. Over three-quarters of all Saudi males of driving age are estimated to own one. Given the demographics, there will be an annual average of 270,000 extra men wanting their own vehicle in the next ten years. That means that even if no existing vehicle owners buy another vehicle between now and 2020, the Saudi market will still need around an extra 2.7 million vehicles. (The estimate is based on the assumption that women will remain barred from driving during that period. If that were changed, demand would go sky-high.)

Obviously, existing owners are going to change vehicles. Excluding the expatriates there are believed to be at least 3.8 million Saudi vehicle owners. Figures show that in the US, 55 percent of auto owners change their vehicle every three years, 75 percent within five years. There are no figures for the Saudi market, but there is no reason that the Saudi drivers are very different.  Presuming 2.1 million existing male Saudi owners changing vehicles every three years, that works out at a minimum of 700,000 vehicles being bought every year — plus the 270,000 for the new owners. Moreover, none of this takes into account the fact that a significant number of women buy their own vehicles.

Not all vehicles being bought in the Kingdom are new. There is a massive second-hand car market. It is estimated to account for around 46 percent of all vehicle sales. Many are imported from Europe and the United States.

Japanese vehicles still account for nearly two-thirds of all new vehicles acquired, with American ones coming second at just under 30 percent, although Korean and other Asian manufacturers as well as European ones are making inroads. But the Saudi market is not uniform. Research has shown, for example, that American brands are more popular in Dammam than in Riyadh and Jeddah — due, almost certainly, to Aramco’s presence there.

With such a massive and growing market, it is no wonder that the world’s manufacturers are so drawn to Saudi Arabia. That is why they, as much as the public, will flocking to the Riyadh Motor Show that opens today and runs through Dec. 9. During those five days, 97,000 visitors are expected to what is both the industry’s window on an exploding market and the market’s window on the industry.